Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Oklahoma at Michigan, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Oklahoma 17–10, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Michigan wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Michigan.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:17 left): Face Mask on Michigan, 15 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to Oklahoma.
Final
 Oklahoma Sooners | 10 |
|---|---|
 Michigan Wolverines | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Michigan lucky · −52 Oklahoma
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma wins 5, Michigan wins 5.
- 1 OU 27 MICH 3
- 2 OU 17 MICH 0
- 3 OU 14 MICH 3
- 4 OU 17 MICH 10
- 5 OU 10 MICH 7
- 6 OU 7 MICH 9
- 7 OU 9 MICH 14
- 8 OU 17 MICH 24
- 9 OU 10 MICH 23
- 10 OU 10 MICH 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma wins 52% of them, Michigan 48%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 12.0% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 12.9% |
| Michigan by 17+ | 8.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Butkowski, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- T. Sandell, 34 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma 9 for 76 yards, Michigan 10 for 90 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:15 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 8 yards | +3% MICH +1.5 pts |
| Q1 9:18 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% OU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 6:37 | Running Into the Kicker on Michigan, 5 yards | +6% OU +3.0 pts |
| Q1 3:38 | Illegal Motion on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 2:47 | False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 14 yards | +3% MICH +1.4 pts |
| Q2 11:04 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +4% MICH +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:45 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | +3% OU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:31 | Holding on Oklahoma, 9 yards | +2% MICH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:01 | Illegal Motion on Oklahoma, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% MICH +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:43 | Face Mask on Michigan, 15 yards | +4% OU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:23 | False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:32 | Delay of Game on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:22 | False Start on Oklahoma, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:14 | Personal Foul on Michigan, 15 yards | +6% OU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:17 | Face Mask on Michigan, 15 yards | +9% OU +2.2 pts |
| Q4 5:53 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% MICH +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:05 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +2% MICH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:35 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:12 | Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:32 | Oklahoma fumbled and Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MICH | OU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 11:59 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:10 | Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% MICH | MICH: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 1:14 | Personal Foul on Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% OU | OU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 14:17 | Face Mask on Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% OU | OU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 10:24 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +8% OU | MICH: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 5:53 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% MICH | MICH: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma 50% · Michigan 50%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma 52% · Michigan 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Oklahoma · 
Michigan
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Maryland at UConn MD 38–14 · replay 87% for the winner