San Diego State at UCLA, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Final

San Diego State Aztecs	10
UCLA Bruins	28

September 12, 2026 · Rose Bowl · Closing line: UCLA −13.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +18 UCLA about even · −18 San Diego State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. San Diego State wins 2, UCLA wins 8.

1 SDSU 28 UCLA 14
2 SDSU 14 UCLA 10
3 SDSU 14 UCLA 17
4 SDSU 21 UCLA 27
5 SDSU 7 UCLA 17
6 SDSU 28 UCLA 41
7 SDSU 14 UCLA 31
8 SDSU 0 UCLA 20
9 SDSU 21 UCLA 45
10 SDSU 0 UCLA 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

San Diego State wins 18% of them, UCLA 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCLA by 18.

Actual: UCLA by 18 494235282114707142128354249 ← San Diego State win by UCLA win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
San Diego State by 17+	2.3%
San Diego State by 9–16	5.4%
San Diego State by 1–8	9.3%
Level after regulation	1.5%
UCLA by 1–8	23.1%
UCLA by 9–16	19.2%
UCLA by 17+	39.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Pre-snap flags +5% SDSU

3rd & 4th downs +4% UCLA

Kicks +3% SDSU

Fumble bounces +2% SDSU

All luck +6% SDSU

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to San Diego State: the final margin was UCLA by 18, without the luck UCLA by 20.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: San Diego State 4 for 37 yards, UCLA 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:14	Delay of Game on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% SDSU +0.8 pts
Q1 11:35	Offside on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% SDSU +1.6 pts
Q1 11:15	False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% UCLA +1.0 pts
Q2 3:30	False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% SDSU +0.8 pts
Q2 1:29	Offside on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% SDSU +0.9 pts
Q2 1:20	Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards	+2% UCLA +0.9 pts
Q2 0:50	Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards	0% UCLA +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00	Face Mask on UCLA, 15 yards	+4% SDSU +1.8 pts
Q4 8:12	False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% SDSU +0.7 pts
Q4 7:46	Face Mask on San Diego State, 7 yards	+2% UCLA +1.2 pts
Q4 4:29	Roughing the Passer on UCLA, 15 yards	0% SDSU +1.1 pts
Q4 3:35	Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards	0% SDSU +1.8 pts

When it happened

UCLA’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

UCLA 50% San Diego State Q1Q2Q3Q4 123568

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCLA was ahead in it, below while San Diego State was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 12:10	San Diego State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+2% SDSU	SDSU: Punt
2	Q1 5:08	UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected	+3% SDSU	UCLA: Punt
3	Q3 14:08	San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected	+2% UCLA	SDSU: Punt
4	Q3 1:04	UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected	+2% SDSU	UCLA: Punt
5	Q4 15:00	Face Mask on UCLA, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+4% SDSU	SDSU: Field goal
6	Q4 13:15	San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected	+4% UCLA	SDSU: Field goal
7	Q4 13:11	C. DiLeva made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before	+3% SDSU	SDSU: Turnover
8	Q4 11:43	UCLA converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected	+4% UCLA	UCLA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

San Diego State 0% · UCLA 100%

Final margin: UCLA by 18
Luck in points: 2.8 for San Diego State
Luck-adjusted margin: UCLA by 20.9
Replay with same day's form: San Diego State 18% · UCLA 82% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

San Diego State fumbled and recovered itQ1 12:10
UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 4Q1 5:08
San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 8Q3 14:08
UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 7Q3 1:04
Face Mask on UCLA, 15 yardsQ4 15:00
San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 4Q4 13:15
C. DiLeva made a 46-yard field goalQ4 13:11
UCLA converted 3rd & 4Q4 11:43

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · San Diego State · UCLA

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