Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Memphis at Boise State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat Memphis 38–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Boise State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Boise State.
Before kickoff Boise State was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:27 left): Return touchdown by Boise State, worth 9 points of win probability to Boise State.
Final
 Memphis Tigers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Boise State lucky · −50 Memphis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Memphis wins 5, Boise State wins 5.
- 1 MEM 49 BOIS 23
- 2 MEM 56 BOIS 41
- 3 MEM 24 BOIS 14
- 4 MEM 38 BOIS 31
- 5 MEM 34 BOIS 31
- 6 MEM 27 BOIS 30
- 7 MEM 34 BOIS 41
- 8 MEM 21 BOIS 31
- 9 MEM 28 BOIS 42
- 10 MEM 17 BOIS 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Memphis wins 50% of them, Boise State 50%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Memphis by 17+ | 14.3% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 16.3% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 12.2% |
| Boise State by 17+ | 11.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Moore, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- P. Laforge, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- P. Laforge, 36 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Memphis 5 for 54 yards, Boise State 10 for 87 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Formation on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MEM +1.4 pts |
| Q1 9:09 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 12 yards | +3% MEM +1.7 pts |
| Q1 3:11 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | +1% MEM +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:40 | Personal Foul on Memphis, 13 yards | +2% BOIS +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:36 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | +3% BOIS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:25 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | +2% MEM +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:30 | Delay of Game on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:49 | Illegal Formation on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:07 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | +3% MEM +1.0 pts |
| Q3 14:09 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | +4% BOIS +1.5 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Memphis, 6 yards | +3% BOIS +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:10 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MEM +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:06 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | +1% BOIS +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:21 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | 0% MEM +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:09 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Boise State’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:52 | Boise State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% BOIS | BOIS: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:26 | Boise State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +8% MEM | BOIS: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 9:33 | P. Laforge made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +6% BOIS | MEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 7:30 | Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedDelay of Game on Boise State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% MEM | BOIS: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 3:02 | Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +4% MEM | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 2:28 | Boise State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +8% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 14:09 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 6:27 | Return touchdown by Boise StateSpecial teams | +9% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Memphis 0% · Boise State 100%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 18
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Memphis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 18.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Memphis 50% · Boise State 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Memphis · 
Boise State
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Navy at Florida Atlantic FAU 38–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner