Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Utah State at Washington, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Washington beat Utah State 16–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Washington wins 4 of 10.
Washington won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Utah State it would win 98% of the time; with this day’s form, 41%. The numbers
Before kickoff Washington was a 97% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:30 left): Washington was stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 8 points of win probability to Utah State.
Final
 Utah State Aggies | 14 |
|---|---|
 Washington Huskies | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +59 Washington lucky · −59 Utah State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah State wins 6, Washington wins 4.
- 1 USU 26 WASH 0
- 2 USU 31 WASH 13
- 3 USU 24 WASH 10
- 4 USU 15 WASH 5
- 5 USU 13 WASH 6
- 6 USU 13 WASH 10
- 7 USU 21 WASH 23
- 8 USU 10 WASH 16
- 9 USU 17 WASH 28
- 10 USU 10 WASH 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Washington won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Utah State it would win 98% of the time; with this day’s form, 41%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
56 points apart for Washington: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.50 | +0.07 | worse by 0.57 |
| Utah State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.05 | worse by 0.07 |
| Washington offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.12 | worse by 0.00 |
| Washington defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.50 | +0.01 | better by 0.51 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah State wins 59% of them, Washington 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah State by 17+ | 17.3% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 11.1% |
| Washington by 17+ | 8.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Robles, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- T. Robles, 48 yds missed · 57% expected
- T. Robles, 26 yds made · 89% expected
- T. Robles, 43 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Utah State 5 for 35 yards, Washington 6 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Snap on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.8 pts |
| Q1 12:59 | Pass Interference on Washington, 16 yards | +1% USU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 10:24 | Holding on Washington, 8 yards | +1% USU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 8:09 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.3 pts |
| Q1 5:22 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on Utah State, 15 yards | +1% WASH +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:55 | Holding on Washington, 3 yards | 0% USU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 12:54 | Illegal Snap on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 7 yards | 0% USU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:04 | Illegal Formation on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WASH +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Washington’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:05 | Washington was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +2% USU | WASH: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 11:35 | T. Robles made a 30-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +2% USU | WASH: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:51 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +2% WASH | USU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:14 | Utah State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% USU | USU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 5:41 | Utah State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:30 | Washington was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% USU | WASH: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:19 | Utah State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% USU | USU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | Illegal Formation on Utah State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% WASH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah State 24% · Washington 76%
- Final margin
- Washington by 2
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for Utah State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 4.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah State 59% · Washington 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Utah State · 
Washington
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Maryland at UConn MD 38–14 · replay 87% for the winner