Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Maryland at UConn, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Maryland beat UConn 38–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Maryland wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Maryland was a 77% favorite.
Final
 Maryland Terrapins | 38 |
|---|---|
 UConn Huskies | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Maryland about even · −13 UConn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maryland wins 9, UConn wins 1.
- 1 MD 41 CONN 3
- 2 MD 49 CONN 17
- 3 MD 42 CONN 14
- 4 MD 31 CONN 7
- 5 MD 27 CONN 7
- 6 MD 41 CONN 24
- 7 MD 20 CONN 6
- 8 MD 27 CONN 17
- 9 MD 24 CONN 20
- 10 MD 14 CONN 19
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maryland wins 87% of them, UConn 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Maryland by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maryland by 17+ | 54.3% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| UConn by 17+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 19 yds made · 97% expected
- S. O'Haire, 37 yds missed · 80% expected
Penalties: Maryland 5 for 37 yards, UConn 8 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UConn, 15 yards | +2% MD +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:13 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CONN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:35 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CONN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:52 | Roughing the Passer on Maryland, 15 yards | +2% CONN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:18 | False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:00 | Holding on Maryland, 8 yards | +1% CONN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:00 | Holding on Maryland, 4 yards | +2% CONN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:10 | Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards | +3% MD +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:02 | Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards | +2% MD +1.2 pts |
| Q2 6:26 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +1% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:12 | Face Mask on UConn, 2 yards | 0% MD +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:38 | Illegal Formation on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q4 7:01 | Pass Interference on UConn, 5 yards | 0% MD +0.7 pts |
When it happened
UConn’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:50 | UConn converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% CONN | CONN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:57 | UConn converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% CONN | CONN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:16 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +3% MD | CONN: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:24 | Maryland converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% MD | MD: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 1:30 | UConn fumbled and Maryland recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MD | CONN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:54 | Maryland was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +5% CONN | MD: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 13:00 | Holding on Maryland, 8 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Maryland, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CONN | CONN: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:10 | Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MD | MD: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maryland 100% · UConn 0%
- Final margin
- Maryland by 24
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Maryland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maryland by 20.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Maryland 87% · UConn 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Maryland · 
UConn
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Wisconsin WIS 36–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Louisiana at USC USC 49–30 · replay 96% for the winner