Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Michigan State beat Eastern Michigan 35–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan State was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 7 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Michigan State about even · −3 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 0, Michigan State wins 10.
- 1 EMU 20 MSU 24
- 2 EMU 17 MSU 26
- 3 EMU 17 MSU 30
- 4 EMU 10 MSU 26
- 5 EMU 14 MSU 33
- 6 EMU 6 MSU 28
- 7 EMU 6 MSU 31
- 8 EMU 10 MSU 38
- 9 EMU 3 MSU 35
- 10 EMU 3 MSU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Michigan wins 3% of them, Michigan State 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan State by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 14.5% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 73.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Eastern Michigan 3 for 12 yards, Michigan State 4 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:48 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% EMU +0.2 pts |
| Q1 10:28 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:48 | Delay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 2 yards | +1% MSU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 5:46 | Pass Interference on Michigan State, 12 yards | 0% EMU +4.9 pts |
| Q4 6:48 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | 0% EMU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:48 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on Michigan State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% EMU | MSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:28 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedEastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedFalse Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% EMU | EMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:48 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedDelay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% MSU | EMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedMichigan State converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedFalse Start on Michigan State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:15 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedEastern Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +1% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:50 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +2% MSU | MSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 15:00 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedMichigan State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedPass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 5:46 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedEastern Michigan converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedEastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedPass Interference on Michigan State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +1% EMU | EMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Michigan 0% · Michigan State 100%
- Final margin
- Michigan State by 28
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan State by 22.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Michigan 3% · Michigan State 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Eastern Michigan · 
Michigan State
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Colgate at Central Michigan CMU 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Maryland at UConn MD 38–14 · replay 87% for the winner