luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Colgate at Central Michigan, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Central Michigan beat Colgate 13–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. Colgate had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Colgate.

Before kickoff Central Michigan was an 88% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:23 left): Central Michigan converted 4th & 9, worth 20 points of win probability to Central Michigan.

Final

Colgate Raiders 10
Central Michigan Chippewas 13

September 12, 2026 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Closing line: Central Michigan −18.5

Luck index +23 Central Michigan about even · −23 Colgate

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colgate wins 2, Central Michigan wins 8.

  1. 1 COLG 20 CMU 6
  2. 2 COLG 3 CMU 0
  3. 3 COLG 10 CMU 13
  4. 4 COLG 3 CMU 7
  5. 5 COLG 6 CMU 12
  6. 6 COLG 17 CMU 26
  7. 7 COLG 10 CMU 21
  8. 8 COLG 10 CMU 24
  9. 9 COLG 0 CMU 19
  10. 10 COLG 0 CMU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colgate wins 23% of them, Central Michigan 77%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colgate by 17+1.6%
Colgate by 9–165.5%
Colgate by 1–813.6%
Level after regulation5.2%
Central Michigan by 1–825.4%
Central Michigan by 9–1625.4%
Central Michigan by 17+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to Colgate: the final margin was Central Michigan by 3, without the luck Central Michigan by 8.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. VanHuis, 29 yds missed · 87% expected
  • L. Vogeler, 48 yds made · 58% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colgate 6 for 70 yards, Central Michigan 5 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:44 False Start on Colgate, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.5 pts
Q1 7:44 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards +1% COLG +1.4 pts
Q1 3:08 Kick Catch Interference on Colgate, 15 yards +1% CMU +0.9 pts
Q2 11:11 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards +4% COLG +1.7 pts
Q2 9:15 Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 12 yards +2% COLG +0.7 pts
Q2 2:51 Holding on Colgate, 10 yards +2% CMU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:48 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% COLG +0.7 pts
Q2 0:13 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards +2% COLG +0.6 pts
Q3 2:38 Personal Foul on Colgate, 15 yards +9% CMU +2.7 pts
Q4 4:19 Personal Foul on Colgate, 15 yards +6% CMU +1.6 pts
Q4 0:21 Holding on Colgate, 10 yards +19% CMU +1.6 pts

When it happened

Central Michigan’s chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Central Michigan was ahead in it, below while Colgate was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 11:34 Central Michigan converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% CMU CMU: Turnover
2 Q3 2:38 Personal Foul on Colgate, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% CMU CMU: Touchdown
3 Q4 9:23 Central Michigan converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +20% CMU CMU: End of game
4 Q4 5:46 Colgate converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% COLG COLG: Turnover
5 Q4 4:45 Colgate fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% COLG COLG: Turnover
6 Q4 4:19 Personal Foul on Colgate, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% CMU CMU: Punt
7 Q4 1:19 Colgate converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% COLG COLG: Turnover
8 Q4 0:21 Holding on Colgate, 10 yardsJudgment calls +19% CMU CMU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colgate 11% · Central Michigan 89%

Final margin
Central Michigan by 3
Luck in points
5.1 for Colgate
Luck-adjusted margin
Central Michigan by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Colgate 23% · Central Michigan 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Colgate · Central Michigan

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