Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Buffalo at Florida International, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Florida International beat Buffalo 33–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida International wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida International was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Buffalo Bulls | 20 |
|---|---|
 Florida International Panthers | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Florida International about even · −5 Buffalo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buffalo wins 0, Florida International wins 10.
- 1 BUF 17 FIU 20
- 2 BUF 7 FIU 17
- 3 BUF 17 FIU 30
- 4 BUF 7 FIU 23
- 5 BUF 10 FIU 28
- 6 BUF 6 FIU 27
- 7 BUF 7 FIU 32
- 8 BUF 7 FIU 36
- 9 BUF 10 FIU 44
- 10 BUF 10 FIU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buffalo wins 5% of them, Florida International 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buffalo by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Florida International by 17+ | 69.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- O. Hautanen, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- O. Hautanen, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- R. Czeremcha, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- R. Czeremcha, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Buffalo 5 for 29 yards, Florida International 5 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:05 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% FIU +4.5 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Pass Interference on Florida International, 11 yards | +1% BUF +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:50 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FIU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Intentional Grounding on Florida International, 0 yards | 0% BUF 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:49 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% FIU +2.4 pts |
| Q3 7:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida International, 15 yards | +1% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:33 | False Start on Buffalo, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% FIU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FIU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:53 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% BUF +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Florida International’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:27 | O. Hautanen made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +5% BUF | BUF: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 6:05 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFalse Start on Buffalo, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% FIU | BUF: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 1:35 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +3% BUF | FIU: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 10:03 | Florida International converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% FIU | FIU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:26 | Florida International fumbled and Buffalo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% BUF | FIU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 12:49 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% FIU | FIU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:32 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +3% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:35 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedBuffalo’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% BUF | BUF: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buffalo 10% · Florida International 90%
- Final margin
- Florida International by 13
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Florida International
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida International by 11.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Buffalo 5% · Florida International 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Buffalo · 
Florida International
More from Week 2 2026
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Marshall MRSH 28–26 · replay 43% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Hawai'i HAW 29–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Georgia State at Kennesaw State GAST 31–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Liberty LIB 24–23 · replay 63% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colgate at Central Michigan CMU 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Stony Brook at Ball State BALL 41–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Michigan State MSU 35–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Wofford at Kent State KENT 36–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Robert Morris at Akron AKR 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner