luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Gardner-Webb at Liberty, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Liberty beat Gardner-Webb 24–23, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Gardner-Webb had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Gardner-Webb.

Liberty won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Gardner-Webb it would win 95% of the time; with this day’s form, 63%. The numbers

Before kickoff Liberty was a 97% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:34 left): Liberty converted 3rd & 10, worth 22 points of win probability to Liberty.

Final

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 23
Liberty Flames 24

September 12, 2026 · Williams Stadium (VA) · Closing line: Liberty −28.5

Luck index +37 Liberty lucky · −37 Gardner-Webb

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Gardner-Webb wins 4, Liberty wins 6.

  1. 1 GWEB 30 LIB 7
  2. 2 GWEB 38 LIB 24
  3. 3 GWEB 20 LIB 13
  4. 4 GWEB 23 LIB 20
  5. 5 GWEB 17 LIB 20
  6. 6 GWEB 31 LIB 37
  7. 7 GWEB 14 LIB 24
  8. 8 GWEB 13 LIB 27
  9. 9 GWEB 13 LIB 31
  10. 10 GWEB 17 LIB 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Liberty won on an off day

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Gardner-Webb it would win 95% of the time; with this day’s form, 63%.

33 points apart for Liberty: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Gardner-Webb offenseEPA per play gained −0.20 +0.06 worse by 0.27
Gardner-Webb defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.01 better by 0.11
Liberty offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.09 worse by 0.19
Liberty defenseEPA per play allowed −0.20 +0.09 better by 0.30

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Gardner-Webb wins 37% of them, Liberty 63%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Liberty by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Gardner-Webb by 17+9.7%
Gardner-Webb by 9–1610.9%
Gardner-Webb by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.6%
Liberty by 1–820.9%
Liberty by 9–1618.0%
Liberty by 17+21.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.0 points to Gardner-Webb: the final margin was Liberty by 1, without the luck Liberty by 11.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Simpson, 41 yds made · 71% expected
  • T. Simpson, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Reeves, 30 yds made · 87% expected
  • T. Simpson, 27 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Gardner-Webb 5 for 27 yards, Liberty 11 for 96 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:54 Pass Interference on Liberty, 15 yards 0% GWEB +1.4 pts
Q1 14:43 Personal Foul on Liberty, 15 yards +1% GWEB +1.6 pts
Q1 9:43 False Start on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIB +1.1 pts
Q1 8:22 Offside on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GWEB +0.7 pts
Q1 5:05 Holding on Liberty, 10 yards 0% GWEB +0.6 pts
Q2 14:53 Holding on Liberty, 10 yards 0% GWEB +1.3 pts
Q2 13:45 False Start on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIB +0.5 pts
Q2 6:45 Offside on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GWEB +0.9 pts
Q2 1:43 False Start on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIB +0.3 pts
Q3 5:35 Personal Foul on Liberty, 10 yards +4% GWEB +1.3 pts
Q3 5:33 Personal Foul on Liberty, 5 yards +2% GWEB +0.6 pts
Q3 4:33 Holding on Liberty, 6 yards +7% GWEB +1.9 pts
Q4 13:23 Illegal Formation on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIB +0.3 pts
Q4 8:51 Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% GWEB +3.3 pts
Q4 7:06 Holding on Gardner-Webb, 7 yards +5% LIB +1.1 pts
Q4 4:06 Illegal Shift on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap +10% GWEB +1.0 pts

When it happened

Liberty’s chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Liberty was ahead in it, below while Gardner-Webb was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 4:33 Holding on Liberty, 6 yardsJudgment calls +7% GWEB GWEB: Field goal
2 Q4 14:50 Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% GWEB GWEB: Punt
3 Q4 12:29 Liberty fumbled and Gardner-Webb recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GWEB LIB: Punt
4 Q4 8:51 Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% GWEB GWEB: Punt
5 Q4 4:06 Illegal Shift on Liberty, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% GWEB GWEB: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:34 Liberty converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +22% LIB LIB: End of game
7 Q4 1:48 Gardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% LIB GWEB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:43 Gardner-Webb was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% LIB –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Gardner-Webb 3% · Liberty 97%

Final margin
Liberty by 1
Luck in points
11.0 for Gardner-Webb
Luck-adjusted margin
Liberty by 12.0
Replay with same day's form
Gardner-Webb 37% · Liberty 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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