luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Lindenwood at Missouri State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Missouri State beat Lindenwood 48–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Missouri State was an 86% favorite.

Final

Lindenwood Lions 14
Missouri State Bears 48

September 12, 2026 · Plaster Sports Complex · Closing line: Missouri State −16.5

Luck index 0 Missouri State about even · 0 Lindenwood

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lindenwood wins 0, Missouri State wins 10.

  1. 1 LIN 30 MOST 45
  2. 2 LIN 24 MOST 48
  3. 3 LIN 7 MOST 35
  4. 4 LIN 17 MOST 49
  5. 5 LIN 17 MOST 52
  6. 6 LIN 9 MOST 49
  7. 7 LIN 0 MOST 45
  8. 8 LIN 10 MOST 59
  9. 9 LIN 16 MOST 70
  10. 10 LIN 7 MOST 70

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lindenwood wins 0% of them, Missouri State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lindenwood by 17+0.0%
Lindenwood by 9–160.0%
Lindenwood by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Missouri State by 1–80.3%
Missouri State by 9–161.1%
Missouri State by 17+98.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Lindenwood: the final margin was Missouri State by 34, without the luck Missouri State by 40.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Graham, 41 yds missed · 68% expected
  • S. McDonald, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lindenwood 7 for 84 yards, Missouri State 11 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:52 Delay of Game on Lindenwood, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIN +0.6 pts
Q1 8:49 Running Into the Kicker on Missouri State, 5 yards 0% MOST +0.6 pts
Q1 8:43 Illegal Substitution on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LIN +3.9 pts
Q1 7:52 Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards +2% LIN +2.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Holding on Lindenwood, 10 yards 0% MOST +0.6 pts
Q2 13:04 Face Mask on Lindenwood, 15 yards 0% MOST +1.6 pts
Q2 11:21 Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIN +0.3 pts
Q2 8:44 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards 0% LIN +0.6 pts
Q2 8:44 Face Mask on Lindenwood, 15 yards 0% MOST +1.6 pts
Q2 8:44 Face Mask on Lindenwood, 15 yards 0% MOST +1.6 pts
Q2 8:44 False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIN +0.8 pts
Q2 8:26 Personal Foul on Lindenwood, 15 yards 0% MOST +1.6 pts
Q2 6:13 Roughing the Passer on Lindenwood, 9 yards 0% MOST +0.8 pts
Q2 6:12 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards 0% LIN +1.5 pts
Q2 1:22 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards 0% LIN +0.6 pts
Q3 11:06 Personal Foul on Missouri State, 15 yards 0% LIN +0.9 pts
Q4 1:58 False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIN +0.3 pts
Q4 1:53 Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIN +0.3 pts

When it happened

Missouri State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Missouri State was ahead in it, below while Lindenwood was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:06 Missouri State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +2% MOST MOST: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:01 Missouri State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +1% MOST MOST: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:43 Illegal Substitution on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% LIN LIN: Missed field goal
4 Q1 7:52 Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% LIN LIN: Missed field goal
5 Q1 4:37 Lindenwood was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +1% MOST LIN: Missed field goal
6 Q1 4:32 W. Graham missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him +2% MOST LIN: Punt
7 Q1 2:34 Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +1% LIN MOST: Punt
8 Q1 1:49 Lindenwood was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +1% MOST LIN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lindenwood 0% · Missouri State 100%

Final margin
Missouri State by 34
Luck in points
6.3 for Lindenwood
Luck-adjusted margin
Missouri State by 40.3
Replay with same day's form
Lindenwood 0% · Missouri State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Lindenwood · Missouri State

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