Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
UT Martin at West Virginia, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
West Virginia beat UT Martin 52–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, West Virginia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff West Virginia was a 100% favorite.
Final
 UT Martin Skyhawks | 7 |
|---|---|
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 West Virginia about even · −1 UT Martin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UT Martin wins 0, West Virginia wins 10.
- 1 UTM 24 WVU 31
- 2 UTM 24 WVU 38
- 3 UTM 21 WVU 40
- 4 UTM 31 WVU 55
- 5 UTM 17 WVU 44
- 6 UTM 14 WVU 45
- 7 UTM 20 WVU 56
- 8 UTM 14 WVU 55
- 9 UTM 7 WVU 52
- 10 UTM 10 WVU 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UT Martin wins 1% of them, West Virginia 99%. The line is what actually happened: West Virginia by 45.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UT Martin by 17+ | 0.1% |
| UT Martin by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| UT Martin by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 3.0% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| West Virginia by 17+ | 90.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Sims, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
- J. Cassidy, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: UT Martin 4 for 39 yards, West Virginia 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:50 | Delay of Game on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:04 | Chop Block on UT Martin, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% WVU +9.7 pts |
| Q3 9:58 | Pass Interference on UT Martin, 15 yards | 0% WVU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:44 | Illegal Motion on UT Martin, 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% WVU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:29 | Delay of Game on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTM +1.4 pts |
When it happened
West Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:38 | UT Martin was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% WVU | UTM: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 13:07 | UT Martin was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% WVU | UTM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 12:08 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:11 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:22 | UT Martin converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% UTM | UTM: Turnover |
| 6 | Q1 6:51 | UT Martin fumbled and West Virginia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% WVU | UTM: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 14:04 | Chop Block on UT Martin, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:44 | Illegal Motion on UT Martin, 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +0% WVU | WVU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UT Martin 0% · West Virginia 100%
- Final margin
- West Virginia by 45
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for West Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Virginia by 37.0
- Replay with same day's form
- UT Martin 1% · West Virginia 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
UT Martin · 
West Virginia
More from Week 2 2026
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Liberty LIB 24–23 · replay 63% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Wisconsin WIS 36–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Weber State at Colorado COLO 52–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Western Carolina at Cincinnati CIN 62–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Arkansas at Utah UTAH 43–10 · replay 99% for the winner