Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Western Illinois at Wisconsin, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Wisconsin beat Western Illinois 36–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wisconsin wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Wisconsin was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Western Illinois Leathernecks | 9 |
|---|---|
 Wisconsin Badgers | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Wisconsin about even · −5 Western Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Illinois wins 1, Wisconsin wins 9.
- 1 WIU 17 WIS 10
- 2 WIU 20 WIS 24
- 3 WIU 6 WIS 14
- 4 WIU 10 WIS 21
- 5 WIU 14 WIS 28
- 6 WIU 14 WIS 31
- 7 WIU 7 WIS 28
- 8 WIU 10 WIS 35
- 9 WIU 7 WIS 38
- 10 WIU 7 WIS 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Illinois wins 5% of them, Wisconsin 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wisconsin by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Illinois by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Western Illinois by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Western Illinois by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 66.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Lahm, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Culkin, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- G. Lahm, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- R. Culkin, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- G. Lahm, 51 yds made · 53% expected
- R. Culkin, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Western Illinois 5 for 40 yards, Wisconsin 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:32 | False Start on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:48 | Offside on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.3 pts |
| Q1 0:28 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | 0% WIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:10 | Pass Interference on Western Illinois, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% WIS +4.1 pts |
| Q2 2:17 | Horse Collar Tackle on Wisconsin, 15 yards | 0% WIU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:38 | Holding on Western Illinois, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WIS +4.1 pts |
| Q3 10:27 | Delay of Game on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.1 pts |
| Q3 1:48 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | 0% WIU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:03 | Illegal Formation on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIU +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Wisconsin’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:13 | Western Illinois converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +0% WIU | WIU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 4:10 | Pass Interference on Western Illinois, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% WIS | WIS: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 2:30 | G. Lahm made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +0% WIS | WIS: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 13:12 | Western Illinois converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% WIU | WIU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 12:16 | Western Illinois converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% WIU | WIU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:38 | Holding on Western Illinois, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 10:24 | R. Culkin made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +0% WIS | WIU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 6:19 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Illinois 0% · Wisconsin 100%
- Final margin
- Wisconsin by 27
- Luck in points
- 6.9 for Wisconsin
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wisconsin by 20.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Illinois 5% · Wisconsin 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Western Illinois · 
Wisconsin
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Liberty LIB 24–23 · replay 63% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Maryland at UConn MD 38–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner