Week 2 2026 · September 11, 2026
Missouri at Kansas, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Kansas 38–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 9 of 10. Kansas had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 24 points of win probability to Kansas.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:16 left): A. Alexander returns blocked had a 27-yard field goal blocked, worth 47 points of win probability to Kansas.
Final
 Missouri Tigers | 38 |
|---|---|
 Kansas Jayhawks | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Missouri about even · −11 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri wins 9, Kansas wins 1.
- 1 MIZ 39 KU 0
- 2 MIZ 31 KU 0
- 3 MIZ 33 KU 7
- 4 MIZ 31 KU 9
- 5 MIZ 25 KU 7
- 6 MIZ 22 KU 6
- 7 MIZ 23 KU 10
- 8 MIZ 19 KU 10
- 9 MIZ 24 KU 21
- 10 MIZ 3 KU 10
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri wins 89% of them, Kansas 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri by 17+ | 53.4% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 2.8% |
| Kansas by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Craig, 36 yds blocked · 80% expected
- M. Connington, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
- A. Alexander returns blocked, 27 yds blocked · 89% expected
- B. Craig, 32 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Missouri 10 for 76 yards, Kansas 11 for 89 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:49 | False Start on Missouri, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 5:55 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:06 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | +4% MIZ +1.8 pts |
| Q1 0:11 | Personal Foul on Kansas, 15 yards | +2% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:12 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:30 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:00 | Block Below the Waist on Kansas, 9 yards | +3% MIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q2 7:16 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | +2% MIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:52 | Personal Foul on Missouri, 15 yards | 0% KU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:14 | Illegal Formation on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | Delay of Game on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:46 | Roughing the Passer on Missouri, 15 yards | +2% KU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:38 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on Missouri, 15 yards | +1% KU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:06 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:21 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIZ +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:56 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% MIZ +2.4 pts |
| Q4 1:09 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:42 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Kansas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:56 | Missouri converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% MIZ | MIZ: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 6:01 | B. Craig had a 36-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him | +6% KU | MIZ: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 2:15 | Kansas converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% KU | KU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 7:16 | A. Alexander returns blocked had a 27-yard field goal blockedKicks · 89% expected for himFalse Start on Missouri, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by KansasSpecial teams | +47% KU | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 13:49 | Kansas fumbled and Missouri recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MIZ | KU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 11:40 | Missouri converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:32 | Kansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% KU | KU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:06 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri 100% · Kansas 0%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 17
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for Kansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 21.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri 89% · Kansas 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Missouri · 
Kansas
More from Week 2 2026
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Towson at South Carolina SC 45–9 · replay 97% for the winner