luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Towson at South Carolina, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

South Carolina beat Towson 45–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Carolina wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff South Carolina was a 100% favorite.

Final

Towson Tigers 9
South Carolina Gamecocks 45

September 12, 2026 · Williams-Brice Stadium · Closing line: South Carolina −44.5

Luck index +3 South Carolina about even · −3 Towson

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Towson wins 0, South Carolina wins 10.

  1. 1 TOW 17 SC 23
  2. 2 TOW 10 SC 20
  3. 3 TOW 3 SC 17
  4. 4 TOW 7 SC 24
  5. 5 TOW 10 SC 31
  6. 6 TOW 7 SC 31
  7. 7 TOW 20 SC 47
  8. 8 TOW 0 SC 31
  9. 9 TOW 0 SC 35
  10. 10 TOW 0 SC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Towson wins 3% of them, South Carolina 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Carolina by 36.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Towson by 17+0.1%
Towson by 9–160.5%
Towson by 1–81.7%
Level after regulation0.6%
South Carolina by 1–86.7%
South Carolina by 9–1611.3%
South Carolina by 17+79.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to South Carolina: the final margin was South Carolina by 36, without the luck South Carolina by 32.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Kelley, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
  • M. Kelley, 33 yds made · 82% expected
  • Z. Faridi, 41 yds made · 71% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Towson 10 for 83 yards, South Carolina 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOW +0.6 pts
Q1 14:21 Holding on Towson, 10 yards 0% SC +1.3 pts
Q1 13:33 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOW +0.6 pts
Q1 5:00 Pass Interference on South Carolina, 15 yards 0% TOW +1.1 pts
Q1 2:33 Personal Foul on Towson, 15 yards 0% SC +1.5 pts
Q1 0:02 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TOW +3.5 pts
Q2 14:41 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOW +0.6 pts
Q2 10:31 False Start on Towson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +0.6 pts
Q2 7:37 False Start on Towson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +1.3 pts
Q2 7:33 Chop Block on Towson, 15 yards 0% SC +1.7 pts
Q2 4:33 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TOW +3.1 pts
Q2 0:40 Personal Foul on Towson, 15 yards 0% SC +1.6 pts
Q2 0:27 Offside on Towson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +0.1 pts
Q3 7:09 Delay of Game on Towson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +1.1 pts
Q3 0:33 False Start on Towson, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +0.2 pts
Q4 6:54 Illegal Formation on Towson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +0.3 pts

When it happened

South Carolina’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Carolina was ahead in it, below while Towson was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:22 South Carolina converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +0% SC SC: Turnover
2 Q1 10:20 South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +0% TOW SC: Punt
3 Q1 0:02 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% TOW TOW: Punt
4 Q2 11:04 Towson converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +0% TOW TOW: Punt
5 Q2 7:37 False Start on Towson, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% SC SC: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:33 Chop Block on Towson, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% SC SC: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:33 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% TOW TOW: Field goal
8 Q3 7:03 Towson converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedTowson missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +0% SC TOW: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Towson 0% · South Carolina 100%

Final margin
South Carolina by 36
Luck in points
3.8 for South Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
South Carolina by 32.2
Replay with same day's form
Towson 3% · South Carolina 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Towson · South Carolina

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