luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Mississippi State at Minnesota, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Mississippi State beat Minnesota 38–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Mississippi State wins 10 of 10.

An off day for Minnesota: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Mississippi State it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff Mississippi State was a 54% favorite.

Final

Mississippi State Bulldogs 38
Minnesota Golden Gophers 13

September 12, 2026 · Huntington Bank Stadium · Closing line: Mississippi State −1.5

Luck index +1 Mississippi State about even · −1 Minnesota

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mississippi State wins 10, Minnesota wins 0.

  1. 1 MSST 47 MINN 0
  2. 2 MSST 52 MINN 10
  3. 3 MSST 50 MINN 14
  4. 4 MSST 39 MINN 7
  5. 5 MSST 44 MINN 14
  6. 6 MSST 34 MINN 7
  7. 7 MSST 33 MINN 10
  8. 8 MSST 40 MINN 21
  9. 9 MSST 28 MINN 14
  10. 10 MSST 38 MINN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Minnesota

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Mississippi State it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

35 points apart for Minnesota: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Mississippi State offenseEPA per play gained +0.48 +0.05 better by 0.43
Mississippi State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.11 +0.09 better by 0.21
Minnesota offenseEPA per play gained −0.11 +0.07 worse by 0.18
Minnesota defenseEPA per play allowed +0.48 +0.07 worse by 0.41

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mississippi State wins 99% of them, Minnesota 1%. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mississippi State by 17+87.6%
Mississippi State by 9–168.1%
Mississippi State by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.2%
Minnesota by 1–80.5%
Minnesota by 9–160.3%
Minnesota by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to Mississippi State: the final margin was Mississippi State by 25, without the luck Mississippi State by 25. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Drzewiecki, 44 yds made · 65% expected
  • L. Drzewiecki, 41 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 52 yds made · 53% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 20 yds blocked · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mississippi State 6 for 60 yards, Minnesota 12 for 115 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:57 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MINN +0.8 pts
Q1 13:42 Personal Foul on Minnesota, 15 yards +4% MSST +1.9 pts
Q1 11:49 Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards +3% MSST +1.4 pts
Q1 11:06 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +3% MINN +1.8 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.5 pts
Q2 13:39 Pass Interference on Minnesota, 15 yards +1% MSST +0.8 pts
Q2 11:25 Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards +1% MSST +0.9 pts
Q2 9:28 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +1% MINN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:45 Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards +1% MSST +2.1 pts
Q2 0:14 Holding on Mississippi State, 5 yards 0% MINN +1.8 pts
Q2 0:03 Chop Block on Minnesota, 15 yards 0% MINN +0.2 pts
Q3 11:40 False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +1.3 pts
Q3 5:14 Unnecessary Roughness on Mississippi State, 15 yards +2% MINN +1.6 pts
Q4 12:37 Pass Interference on Minnesota, 9 yards 0% MSST +0.6 pts
Q4 3:41 Face Mask on Mississippi State, 15 yards 0% MSST +2.0 pts
Q4 3:15 Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards 0% MSST +2.0 pts
Q4 2:25 Pass Interference on Minnesota, 8 yards 0% MSST +1.7 pts
Q4 1:55 Illegal Substitution on Minnesota, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +1.1 pts

When it happened

Minnesota’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Minnesota was ahead in it, below while Mississippi State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:42 Personal Foul on Minnesota, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% MSST MSST: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:49 Holding on Minnesota, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% MSST MSST: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:06 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% MINN MINN: Field goal
4 Q1 5:51 Minnesota converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +3% MINN MINN: Field goal
5 Q1 3:35 Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% MSST MINN: Field goal
6 Q1 2:24 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +2% MSST MSST: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:01 Mississippi State fumbled and Minnesota recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by MinnesotaSpecial teams +7% MINN MSST: Field goal
8 Q3 9:53 K. Ferrie made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 8 of 9 from 45+ before +3% MSST MSST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mississippi State 100% · Minnesota 0%

Final margin
Mississippi State by 25
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Mississippi State by 25.0
Replay with same day's form
Mississippi State 99% · Minnesota 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Mississippi State · Minnesota

More from Week 2 2026

Every week 2 game, 2026