luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Stony Brook at Ball State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Ball State beat Stony Brook 41–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ball State wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Ball State was an 81% favorite.

Final

Stony Brook Seawolves 17
Ball State Cardinals 41

September 12, 2026 · Scheumann Stadium · Closing line: Ball State −13.5

Luck index +8 Ball State about even · −8 Stony Brook

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stony Brook wins 1, Ball State wins 9.

  1. 1 STBK 13 BALL 7
  2. 2 STBK 20 BALL 23
  3. 3 STBK 13 BALL 20
  4. 4 STBK 20 BALL 30
  5. 5 STBK 10 BALL 24
  6. 6 STBK 21 BALL 38
  7. 7 STBK 13 BALL 33
  8. 8 STBK 7 BALL 31
  9. 9 STBK 10 BALL 38
  10. 10 STBK 10 BALL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Stony Brook wins 8% of them, Ball State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ball State by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stony Brook by 17+0.6%
Stony Brook by 9–162.3%
Stony Brook by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation1.0%
Ball State by 1–817.7%
Ball State by 9–1618.0%
Ball State by 17+55.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to Ball State: the final margin was Ball State by 24, without the luck Ball State by 14.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Mannino, 45 yds made · 63% expected
  • B. Boehm, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. Boehm, 30 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Stony Brook 3 for 26 yards, Ball State 11 for 99 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:10 Holding on Ball State, 10 yards +1% STBK +0.9 pts
Q1 6:16 Personal Foul on Ball State, 15 yards +1% STBK +0.9 pts
Q1 2:26 Pass Interference on Stony Brook, 6 yards +3% BALL +2.4 pts
Q2 12:34 Holding on Ball State, 10 yards +2% STBK +1.9 pts
Q2 10:50 Illegal Motion on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% STBK +0.7 pts
Q2 10:50 Illegal Motion on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% STBK +0.7 pts
Q2 5:27 Roughing the Passer on Ball State, 15 yards +1% STBK +2.1 pts
Q2 0:49 Roughing the Passer on Stony Brook, 15 yards 0% BALL +1.6 pts
Q3 8:58 False Start on Stony Brook, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BALL +1.7 pts
Q3 8:05 False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BALL +1.5 pts
Q3 5:34 Pass Interference on Ball State, 9 yards 0% STBK +0.9 pts
Q3 1:36 Holding on Ball State, 10 yards 0% STBK +0.6 pts
Q4 13:05 False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BALL +0.1 pts
Q4 1:16 Holding on Ball State, 10 yards 0% STBK +0.6 pts

When it happened

Ball State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ball State was ahead in it, below while Stony Brook was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 Stony Brook converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +2% STBK STBK: Punt
2 Q1 6:26 Stony Brook was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +2% BALL STBK: Punt
3 Q1 4:55 Ball State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +2% BALL BALL: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:26 Pass Interference on Stony Brook, 6 yardsJudgment calls +3% BALL BALL: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:21 Stony Brook was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +2% BALL STBK: Punt
6 Q2 12:34 Holding on Ball State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% STBK STBK: Turnover
7 Q2 11:15 Ball State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +2% BALL BALL: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:23 Ball State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +3% BALL BALL: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stony Brook 1% · Ball State 99%

Final margin
Ball State by 24
Luck in points
9.9 for Ball State
Luck-adjusted margin
Ball State by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
Stony Brook 8% · Ball State 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Stony Brook · Ball State

More from Week 2 2026

Every week 2 game, 2026