Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Central Connecticut at Toledo, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Central Connecticut 63–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Central Connecticut Blue Devils | 10 |
|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Toledo about even · 0 Central Connecticut
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Central Connecticut wins 0, Toledo wins 10.
- 1 CCSU 0 TOL 17
- 2 CCSU 3 TOL 27
- 3 CCSU 0 TOL 30
- 4 CCSU 0 TOL 34
- 5 CCSU 0 TOL 35
- 6 CCSU 0 TOL 38
- 7 CCSU 0 TOL 41
- 8 CCSU 0 TOL 45
- 9 CCSU 3 TOL 52
- 10 CCSU 0 TOL 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Central Connecticut wins 0% of them, Toledo 100%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 53.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Central Connecticut by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Central Connecticut by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Central Connecticut by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Toledo by 17+ | 96.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hennessey, 25 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Hennessey, 49 yds missed · 53% expected
Penalties: Central Connecticut 5 for 23 yards, Toledo 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:07 | Offside on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% CCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Illegal Formation on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:09 | Delay of Game on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +2.1 pts |
| Q3 9:44 | Personal Foul on Central Connecticut, 7 yards | 0% TOL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | Offside on Central Connecticut, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.1 pts |
| Q3 3:06 | Offside on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:00 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:07 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% CCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:03 | Personal Foul on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% CCSU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Toledo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:36 | J. Hennessey made a 25-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +0% TOL | CCSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:08 | Toledo converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:28 | Central Connecticut converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% CCSU | CCSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 7:39 | Central Connecticut converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% CCSU | CCSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:26 | Central Connecticut was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% TOL | CCSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 4:31 | Toledo converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% TOL | TOL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q1 3:41 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% CCSU | TOL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q1 3:17 | Toledo was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +0% CCSU | TOL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Central Connecticut 0% · Toledo 100%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 53
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for Toledo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 44.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Central Connecticut 0% · Toledo 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Central Connecticut · 
Toledo
More from Week 2 2026
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner
- Colgate at Central Michigan CMU 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Stony Brook at Ball State BALL 41–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Buffalo at Florida International FIU 33–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Michigan State MSU 35–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Wofford at Kent State KENT 36–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Robert Morris at Akron AKR 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sacred Heart at Massachusetts MASS 37–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Fresno State FRES 49–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Miami (OH) M-OH 45–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Wagner at James Madison JMU 87–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico UNM 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner