Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Sacramento State at Fresno State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Sacramento State 49–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Fresno State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Fresno State was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Sacramento State Hornets | 3 |
|---|---|
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Fresno State about even · 0 Sacramento State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sacramento State wins 0, Fresno State wins 10.
- 1 SAC 21 FRES 31
- 2 SAC 3 FRES 23
- 3 SAC 7 FRES 31
- 4 SAC 10 FRES 40
- 5 SAC 7 FRES 41
- 6 SAC 20 FRES 56
- 7 SAC 7 FRES 48
- 8 SAC 7 FRES 52
- 9 SAC 5 FRES 54
- 10 SAC 7 FRES 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sacramento State wins 0% of them, Fresno State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 46.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sacramento State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Sacramento State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Sacramento State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Fresno State by 17+ | 95.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Watanabe, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- G. Meadors, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- M. Watanabe, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Sacramento State 7 for 74 yards, Fresno State 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:42 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | 0% FRES +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:58 | Intentional Grounding on Sacramento State, 14 yards | 0% FRES +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | Illegal Block on Fresno State, 10 yards | 0% SAC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sacramento State, 15 yards | 0% FRES +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:15 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SAC +2.8 pts |
| Q3 11:15 | Pass Interference on Sacramento State, 16 yards | 0% FRES +1.7 pts |
| Q3 11:15 | Offside on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FRES +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:02 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | 0% SAC +3.6 pts |
| Q3 9:02 | False Start on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FRES +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:57 | Personal Foul on Sacramento State, 9 yards | 0% FRES +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:57 | Delay of Game on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SAC +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Fresno State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:50 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +1% SAC | FRES: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:27 | Fresno State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedSacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% SAC | FRES: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 3:24 | Sacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% FRES | SAC: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:53 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +1% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 12:42 | Sacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedSacramento State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedHolding on Sacramento State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% FRES | SAC: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:58 | Sacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 253rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedFresno State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedIntentional Grounding on Sacramento State, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +0% SAC | SAC: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 6:19 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +0% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 5:15 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIllegal Block on Fresno State, 10 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Sacramento State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sacramento State 0% · Fresno State 100%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 46
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 40.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sacramento State 0% · Fresno State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Sacramento State · 
Fresno State
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