luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Wofford at Kent State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Kent State beat Wofford 36–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kent State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Kent State was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:50 left): Return touchdown by Kent State, worth 22 points of win probability to Kent State.

Final

Wofford Terriers 15
Kent State Golden Flashes 36

September 12, 2026 · Dix Stadium · Closing line: Kent State −10

Luck index +1 Kent State about even · −1 Wofford

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wofford wins 0, Kent State wins 10.

  1. 1 WOF 14 KENT 21
  2. 2 WOF 0 KENT 13
  3. 3 WOF 10 KENT 27
  4. 4 WOF 7 KENT 28
  5. 5 WOF 3 KENT 27
  6. 6 WOF 14 KENT 41
  7. 7 WOF 0 KENT 31
  8. 8 WOF 0 KENT 34
  9. 9 WOF 3 KENT 41
  10. 10 WOF 0 KENT 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wofford wins 1% of them, Kent State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Kent State by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wofford by 17+0.0%
Wofford by 9–160.2%
Wofford by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
Kent State by 1–84.9%
Kent State by 9–169.4%
Kent State by 17+84.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to Kent State: the final margin was Kent State by 21, without the luck Kent State by 16.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Spence, 28 yds made · 90% expected
  • S. Spence, 50 yds made · 56% expected
  • S. Leonard, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Wofford 9 for 70 yards, Kent State 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:26 Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WOF +0.4 pts
Q1 8:39 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WOF +0.6 pts
Q1 1:21 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WOF +0.8 pts
Q2 12:35 Pass Interference on Wofford, 15 yards +2% KENT +1.4 pts
Q2 6:48 False Start on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KENT +0.7 pts
Q2 4:02 Sideline Interference on Kent State, 5 yards +3% WOF +1.0 pts
Q2 2:55 Face Mask on Kent State, 15 yards +3% WOF +0.9 pts
Q2 2:29 Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WOF +1.4 pts
Q2 2:17 False Start on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% KENT +1.5 pts
Q3 12:44 False Start on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KENT +0.7 pts
Q3 12:38 Pass Interference on Kent State, 15 yards +4% WOF +1.4 pts
Q3 12:17 False Start on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KENT +0.8 pts
Q3 1:24 Illegal Touching on Kent State, 0 yards +5% WOF +1.2 pts
Q4 14:21 Delay of Game on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENT +0.7 pts
Q4 7:13 Kick Catch Interference on Wofford, 15 yards 0% KENT +0.9 pts
Q4 4:12 Holding on Wofford, 10 yards 0% KENT +0.6 pts
Q4 0:25 Illegal Formation on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENT 0.0 pts

When it happened

Kent State’s chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kent State was ahead in it, below while Wofford was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:01 Kent State fumbled and Wofford recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% WOF KENT: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 1:50 Return touchdown by Kent StateSpecial teams +22% KENT KENT: Turnover
3 Q3 6:27 Kent State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% KENT KENT: Missed field goal
4 Q3 4:12 S. Leonard missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him +9% WOF KENT: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:24 Illegal Touching on Kent State, 0 yardsJudgment calls +5% WOF WOF: Punt
6 Q3 0:41 Kent State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% KENT KENT: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:21 Kent State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedKent State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedDelay of Game on Wofford, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% KENT KENT: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:03 Kent State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% KENT KENT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wofford 1% · Kent State 99%

Final margin
Kent State by 21
Luck in points
4.5 for Kent State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kent State by 16.5
Replay with same day's form
Wofford 1% · Kent State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Wofford · Kent State

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