Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Holy Cross at Miami (OH), Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Miami (OH) beat Holy Cross 45–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami (OH) wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami (OH) was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Holy Cross Crusaders | 7 |
|---|---|
 Miami (OH) RedHawks | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Miami (OH) about even · 0 Holy Cross
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Holy Cross wins 0, Miami (OH) wins 10.
- 1 HC 10 M-OH 20
- 2 HC 14 M-OH 31
- 3 HC 7 M-OH 28
- 4 HC 7 M-OH 31
- 5 HC 0 M-OH 27
- 6 HC 7 M-OH 38
- 7 HC 0 M-OH 34
- 8 HC 0 M-OH 37
- 9 HC 3 M-OH 45
- 10 HC 3 M-OH 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Holy Cross wins 0% of them, Miami (OH) 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Holy Cross by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Holy Cross by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Holy Cross by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Miami (OH) by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Miami (OH) by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| Miami (OH) by 17+ | 93.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Holy Cross 4 for 19 yards, Miami (OH) 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:23 | Offside on Holy Cross, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% M-OH +0.2 pts |
| Q1 4:24 | False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HC +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:19 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% HC +3.0 pts |
| Q2 13:43 | Pass Interference on Holy Cross, 4 yards | 0% M-OH +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:41 | False Start on Holy Cross, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% M-OH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards | 0% HC +0.1 pts |
| Q4 3:43 | False Start on Holy Cross, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% M-OH +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Miami (OH)’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:23 | Offside on Holy Cross, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% M-OH | M-OH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:31 | Holy Cross was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% HC | HC: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 4:51 | Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% M-OH | M-OH: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:24 | False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% HC | HC: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:56 | Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +0% M-OH | M-OH: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:24 | Holy Cross was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% M-OH | HC: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 1:19 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% HC | HC: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 13:43 | Pass Interference on Holy Cross, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +0% M-OH | M-OH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Holy Cross 0% · Miami (OH) 100%
- Final margin
- Miami (OH) by 38
- Luck in points
- 6.4 for Miami (OH)
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami (OH) by 31.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Holy Cross 0% · Miami (OH) 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Holy Cross · 
Miami (OH)
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