Week 2 2026 · September 11, 2026
Richmond at NC State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
NC State beat Richmond 73–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, NC State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff NC State was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Richmond Spiders | 0 |
|---|---|
 NC State Wolfpack | 73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 NC State about even · 0 Richmond
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Richmond wins 0, NC State wins 10.
- 1 RICH 0 NCSU 38
- 2 RICH 0 NCSU 45
- 3 RICH 7 NCSU 58
- 4 RICH 0 NCSU 54
- 5 RICH 3 NCSU 59
- 6 RICH 3 NCSU 62
- 7 RICH 0 NCSU 63
- 8 RICH 0 NCSU 66
- 9 RICH 0 NCSU 70
- 10 RICH 0 NCSU 77
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Richmond wins 0% of them, NC State 100%. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 73.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Richmond by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Richmond by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Richmond by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| NC State by 17+ | 97.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Richmond 7 for 34 yards, NC State 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:20 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards | 0% RICH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:43 | Pass Interference on Richmond, 15 yards | 0% NCSU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:32 | Unnecessary Roughness on Richmond, 1 yard | 0% NCSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:15 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards | 0% RICH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | False Start on Richmond, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:42 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards | 0% RICH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:44 | Holding on Richmond, 2 yards | 0% NCSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:35 | Holding on Richmond, 1 yard | 0% NCSU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:19 | Illegal Shift on Richmond, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 7:01 | Delay of Game on Richmond, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 8:02 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% RICH +3.8 pts |
When it happened
NC State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:16 | Richmond was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% RICH | RICH: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:07 | Richmond was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% NCSU | RICH: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:50 | Richmond was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% NCSU | RICH: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:40 | NC State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% NCSU | NCSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:20 | Holding on NC State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% RICH | RICH: Turnover |
| 6 | Q1 3:26 | NC State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% NCSU | NCSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:29 | NC State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +0% NCSU | NCSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 14:16 | Richmond fumbled and NC State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% NCSU | RICH: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Richmond 0% · NC State 100%
- Final margin
- NC State by 73
- Luck in points
- 9.8 for NC State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- NC State by 63.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Richmond 0% · NC State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Richmond · 
NC State
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Colgate at Central Michigan CMU 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech VT 44–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Virginia UVA 59–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Fordham at Coastal Carolina CCU 45–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- East Tennessee State at North Carolina UNC 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner