luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 11, 2026

Norfolk State at Virginia, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Virginia beat Norfolk State 59–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Virginia was a 100% favorite.

Final

Norfolk State Spartans 3
Virginia Cavaliers 59

September 11, 2026 · Scott Stadium · Closing line: Virginia −47.5

Luck index +3 Virginia about even · −3 Norfolk State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Norfolk State wins 0, Virginia wins 10.

  1. 1 NORF 30 UVA 35
  2. 2 NORF 20 UVA 31
  3. 3 NORF 17 UVA 34
  4. 4 NORF 21 UVA 41
  5. 5 NORF 10 UVA 33
  6. 6 NORF 13 UVA 40
  7. 7 NORF 16 UVA 45
  8. 8 NORF 24 UVA 56
  9. 9 NORF 0 UVA 38
  10. 10 NORF 17 UVA 66

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Norfolk State wins 3% of them, Virginia 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 56.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Norfolk State by 17+0.3%
Norfolk State by 9–160.6%
Norfolk State by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Virginia by 1–86.9%
Virginia by 9–1612.0%
Virginia by 17+77.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.7 points to Virginia: the final margin was Virginia by 56, without the luck Virginia by 47.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Peery, 32 yds missed · 83% expected
  • M. Peery, 40 yds made · 70% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 30 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Norfolk State 3 for 37 yards, Virginia 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:54 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards 0% NORF +3.2 pts
Q1 6:29 Personal Foul on Norfolk State, 15 yards 0% UVA +2.2 pts
Q1 5:55 Illegal Shift on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NORF +0.6 pts
Q2 12:18 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Norfolk State, 11 yards 0% UVA +1.4 pts
Q2 3:58 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards 0% NORF +0.6 pts
Q2 1:54 Personal Foul on Norfolk State, 11 yards 0% UVA +1.4 pts

When it happened

Virginia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia was ahead in it, below while Norfolk State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:54 Holding on Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% NORF NORF: Turnover
2 Q1 11:22 Norfolk State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +0% UVA NORF: Turnover
3 Q1 8:13 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% UVA UVA: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:39 Virginia converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +0% UVA UVA: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:29 Personal Foul on Norfolk State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% UVA UVA: Touchdown
6 Q1 5:55 Illegal Shift on Virginia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% NORF NORF: Punt
7 Q1 4:23 Norfolk State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +0% UVA NORF: Punt
8 Q2 3:58 Holding on Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% NORF NORF: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Norfolk State 0% · Virginia 100%

Final margin
Virginia by 56
Luck in points
8.7 for Virginia
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia by 47.3
Replay with same day's form
Norfolk State 3% · Virginia 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Norfolk State · Virginia

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