Week 2 2026 · September 11, 2026
Villanova at Louisville, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Louisville beat Villanova 59–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisville was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Villanova Wildcats | 13 |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Louisville about even · 0 Villanova
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villanova wins 0, Louisville wins 10.
- 1 VILL 20 LOU 35
- 2 VILL 30 LOU 52
- 3 VILL 20 LOU 49
- 4 VILL 14 LOU 48
- 5 VILL 14 LOU 52
- 6 VILL 19 LOU 61
- 7 VILL 7 LOU 54
- 8 VILL 0 LOU 52
- 9 VILL 3 LOU 59
- 10 VILL 13 LOU 76
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Villanova wins 0% of them, Louisville 100%. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 46.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villanova by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Villanova by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Villanova by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Louisville by 17+ | 97.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hilbert, 33 yds made · 84% expected
- D. LeBlanc, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- D. LeBlanc, 29 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Villanova 7 for 64 yards, Louisville 7 for 89 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:41 | Roughing the Passer on Villanova, 15 yards | 0% LOU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 11:05 | Penalty on Louisville, 14 yards | 0% LOU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 10:13 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | 0% VILL +1.9 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | False Start on Villanova, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:08 | Running Into the Kicker on Louisville, 5 yards | 0% VILL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:18 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% VILL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:46 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards | 0% VILL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Holding on Villanova, 10 yards | 0% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Holding on Villanova, 9 yards | 0% LOU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:04 | Delay of Game on Villanova, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:45 | False Start on Villanova, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +3.2 pts |
| Q3 7:35 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | 0% VILL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:42 | Pass Interference on Louisville, 15 yards | 0% VILL +3.3 pts |
| Q3 3:36 | Face Mask on Villanova, 15 yards | 0% LOU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Louisville’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:41 | Roughing the Passer on Villanova, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% LOU | LOU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:21 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% VILL | LOU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 12:16 | C. Hilbert made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +0% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 10:13 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% VILL | VILL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 6:28 | Villanova was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% LOU | VILL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 0:58 | Louisville converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 10:18 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% VILL | VILL: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 7:59 | Louisville fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villanova 0% · Louisville 100%
- Final margin
- Louisville by 46
- Luck in points
- 10.9 for Louisville
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisville by 35.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Villanova 0% · Louisville 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Villanova · 
Louisville
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Colgate at Central Michigan CMU 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech VT 44–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Virginia UVA 59–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Fordham at Coastal Carolina CCU 45–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- East Tennessee State at North Carolina UNC 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner