luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 57 of the 65 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Virginia Tech beat Old Dominion 44–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia Tech wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Virginia Tech was an 87% favorite.

Final

Old Dominion Monarchs 21
Virginia Tech Hokies 44

September 12, 2026 · Lane Stadium · Closing line: Virginia Tech −17.5

Luck index +4 Virginia Tech about even · −4 Old Dominion

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 0, Virginia Tech wins 10.

  1. 1 ODU 14 VT 18
  2. 2 ODU 21 VT 29
  3. 3 ODU 7 VT 19
  4. 4 ODU 11 VT 26
  5. 5 ODU 0 VT 18
  6. 6 ODU 3 VT 25
  7. 7 ODU 0 VT 24
  8. 8 ODU 14 VT 43
  9. 9 ODU 5 VT 39
  10. 10 ODU 7 VT 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Old Dominion wins 4% of them, Virginia Tech 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia Tech by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Old Dominion by 17+0.3%
Old Dominion by 9–160.7%
Old Dominion by 1–82.5%
Level after regulation0.5%
Virginia Tech by 1–88.6%
Virginia Tech by 9–1614.8%
Virginia Tech by 17+72.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to Virginia Tech: the final margin was Virginia Tech by 23, without the luck Virginia Tech by 23. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Love, 39 yds made · 77% expected
  • N. Eichner, 34 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Love, 22 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Eichner, 51 yds made · 51% expected
  • J. Love, 25 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Old Dominion 6 for 45 yards, Virginia Tech 6 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:03 Illegal Block on Virginia Tech, 10 yards 0% ODU +1.3 pts
Q2 12:47 Intentional Grounding on Virginia Tech, 0 yards 0% ODU 0.0 pts
Q2 4:56 Illegal Formation on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.3 pts
Q2 3:10 Delay of Game on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VT +0.4 pts
Q2 2:33 Illegal Snap on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VT +0.3 pts
Q2 1:54 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% VT +1.3 pts
Q3 0:20 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% VT +0.2 pts
Q4 13:07 Face Mask on Old Dominion, 13 yards 0% VT +1.5 pts
Q4 11:12 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Old Dominion, 2 yards 0% VT +2.1 pts
Q4 7:49 Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 1 yard, wiping out the play +3% VT +8.6 pts
Q4 5:52 Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards 0% ODU +1.3 pts
Q4 4:41 False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Virginia Tech’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia Tech was ahead in it, below while Old Dominion was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:23 J. Love made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him +2% VT VT: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:19 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +1% VT ODU: Punt
3 Q1 7:21 Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +2% VT VT: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:08 Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% VT VT: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:59 Virginia Tech converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +1% VT VT: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:44 Old Dominion fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% ODU ODU: Field goal
7 Q1 2:29 Old Dominion fumbled and Virginia Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Virginia TechSpecial teams +4% VT ODU: Field goal
8 Q4 7:49 Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 1 yard, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% VT ODU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Old Dominion 0% · Virginia Tech 100%

Final margin
Virginia Tech by 23
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia Tech by 23.0
Replay with same day's form
Old Dominion 4% · Virginia Tech 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 57 of the 65 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Old Dominion · Virginia Tech

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