Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Middle Tennessee at Marshall, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Middle Tennessee 28–26, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Marshall wins 4 of 10.
Marshall won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Middle Tennessee it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 43%. The numbers
Before kickoff Marshall was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:50 left): Middle Tennessee’s two-point try failed, worth 14 points of win probability to Marshall.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Marshall lucky · −57 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 6, Marshall wins 4.
- 1 MTSU 38 MRSH 10
- 2 MTSU 20 MRSH 0
- 3 MTSU 35 MRSH 20
- 4 MTSU 21 MRSH 10
- 5 MTSU 20 MRSH 13
- 6 MTSU 31 MRSH 28
- 7 MTSU 21 MRSH 24
- 8 MTSU 24 MRSH 31
- 9 MTSU 14 MRSH 27
- 10 MTSU 17 MRSH 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Marshall won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Middle Tennessee it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 43%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Marshall: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.03 | worse by 0.05 |
| Middle Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.10 | better by 0.02 |
| Marshall offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.07 | better by 0.02 |
| Marshall defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.09 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Middle Tennessee wins 57% of them, Marshall 43%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 17.7% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 22.5% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 11.4% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 8.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Bourgeois, 52 yds made · 51% expected
- D. Bourgeois, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- D. Bourgeois, 50 yds missed · 55% expected
Penalties: Middle Tennessee 6 for 29 yards, Marshall 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:45 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 10 yards | +3% MTSU +2.2 pts |
| Q1 8:18 | Offside on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:42 | Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:18 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +2% MRSH +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:26 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:32 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MTSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:10 | Illegal Substitution on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 13:23 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 2 yards | +2% MRSH +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:12 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +4% MTSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:23 | Personal Foul on Middle Tennessee, 2 yards | +4% MRSH +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 5:36 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% MRSH | MTSU: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q3 4:16 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% MTSU | MRSH: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 3:11 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MTSU | MTSU: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 0:31 | D. Bourgeois missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +8% MRSH | MTSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 8:24 | Marshall fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MRSH | MRSH: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:33 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +10% MTSU | MTSU: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 1:47 | Middle Tennessee converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:50 | Middle Tennessee’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +14% MRSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Middle Tennessee 29% · Marshall 71%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 2
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Middle Tennessee
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Marshall by 4.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Middle Tennessee 57% · Marshall 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Middle Tennessee · 
Marshall
More from Week 2 2026
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Hawai'i HAW 29–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Georgia State at Kennesaw State GAST 31–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Liberty LIB 24–23 · replay 63% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buffalo at Florida International FIU 33–20 · replay 95% for the winner