luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Alabama State at Troy, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Troy beat Alabama State 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Troy wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Troy was a 94% favorite.

Final

Alabama State Hornets 17
Troy Trojans 34

September 12, 2026 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Closing line: Troy −23.5

Luck index +5 Troy about even · −5 Alabama State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alabama State wins 1, Troy wins 9.

  1. 1 ALST 13 TROY 6
  2. 2 ALST 10 TROY 13
  3. 3 ALST 9 TROY 17
  4. 4 ALST 7 TROY 20
  5. 5 ALST 18 TROY 35
  6. 6 ALST 0 TROY 20
  7. 7 ALST 13 TROY 35
  8. 8 ALST 7 TROY 35
  9. 9 ALST 6 TROY 38
  10. 10 ALST 0 TROY 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alabama State wins 5% of them, Troy 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alabama State by 17+0.4%
Alabama State by 9–161.0%
Alabama State by 1–83.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Troy by 1–89.3%
Troy by 9–1612.7%
Troy by 17+72.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to Alabama State: the final margin was Troy by 17, without the luck Troy by 17. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Head, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • A. Abu-Akel, 37 yds made · 79% expected
  • E. Head, 47 yds made · 60% expected
  • E. Head, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Alabama State 4 for 30 yards, Troy 11 for 110 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:56 Holding on Troy, 10 yards 0% ALST +0.6 pts
Q1 13:11 Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards +1% ALST +1.6 pts
Q1 8:52 Holding on Troy, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ALST +2.1 pts
Q1 7:39 Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards +2% ALST +1.6 pts
Q1 6:10 Personal Foul on Alabama State, 15 yards +1% TROY +1.6 pts
Q1 5:20 Illegal Substitution on Alabama State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TROY +0.8 pts
Q1 0:08 Delay of Game on Alabama State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TROY +4.1 pts
Q2 14:19 Offside on Alabama State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TROY +0.4 pts
Q2 8:35 False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALST +0.4 pts
Q3 3:26 Running Into the Kicker on Troy, 5 yards 0% ALST +2.9 pts
Q4 11:28 False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALST +0.9 pts
Q4 9:00 Holding on Troy, 10 yards 0% ALST +0.7 pts
Q4 6:16 Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards 0% ALST +1.3 pts
Q4 3:30 False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALST +0.4 pts
Q4 1:48 Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards 0% ALST +1.4 pts

When it happened

Troy’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Troy was ahead in it, below while Alabama State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:56 Alabama State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +1% ALST ALST: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:52 Holding on Troy, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% ALST ALST: Punt
3 Q1 8:17 Troy was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +1% ALST TROY: Punt
4 Q1 7:39 Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% ALST ALST: Punt
5 Q1 6:10 Personal Foul on Alabama State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% TROY TROY: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:29 Troy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +1% ALST TROY: Touchdown
7 Q3 10:37 Troy was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +1% ALST TROY: Field goal
8 Q4 13:50 Troy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% TROY TROY: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alabama State 2% · Troy 98%

Final margin
Troy by 17
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Troy by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Alabama State 5% · Troy 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Alabama State · Troy

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