luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

West Georgia at Arkansas State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Arkansas State beat West Georgia 52–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Arkansas State was a 98% favorite.

Final

West Georgia Wolves 7
Arkansas State Red Wolves 52

September 12, 2026 · Centennial Bank Stadium · Closing line: Arkansas State −31.5

Luck index +1 Arkansas State about even · −1 West Georgia

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. West Georgia wins 0, Arkansas State wins 10.

  1. 1 WGA 7 ARST 14
  2. 2 WGA 14 ARST 27
  3. 3 WGA 7 ARST 24
  4. 4 WGA 10 ARST 31
  5. 5 WGA 10 ARST 34
  6. 6 WGA 0 ARST 27
  7. 7 WGA 7 ARST 37
  8. 8 WGA 0 ARST 33
  9. 9 WGA 3 ARST 41
  10. 10 WGA 0 ARST 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

West Georgia wins 1% of them, Arkansas State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 45.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
West Georgia by 17+0.0%
West Georgia by 9–160.1%
West Georgia by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.1%
Arkansas State by 1–85.5%
Arkansas State by 9–169.7%
Arkansas State by 17+84.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to Arkansas State: the final margin was Arkansas State by 45, without the luck Arkansas State by 44.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: West Georgia 12 for 97 yards, Arkansas State 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:45 Delay of Game on West Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +1.0 pts
Q1 10:33 Holding on West Georgia, 7 yards, wiping out the play +1% ARST +2.5 pts
Q1 5:05 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards +1% ARST +1.6 pts
Q2 12:14 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ARST +1.7 pts
Q2 6:40 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards 0% WGA +1.7 pts
Q2 4:58 False Start on West Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.8 pts
Q2 4:40 False Start on West Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +0.2 pts
Q2 3:33 False Start on West Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.4 pts
Q2 1:19 Unnecessary Roughness on Arkansas State, 15 yards 0% WGA +0.9 pts
Q2 0:29 Delay of Game on West Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.3 pts
Q3 12:19 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards 0% ARST +0.6 pts
Q3 10:55 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WGA +1.4 pts
Q3 9:48 Pass Interference on West Georgia, 15 yards 0% ARST +1.9 pts
Q3 7:53 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ARST +0.8 pts
Q3 7:25 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards 0% ARST +1.6 pts
Q4 7:28 Offside on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +0.3 pts
Q4 5:04 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards 0% WGA +0.7 pts

When it happened

Arkansas State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arkansas State was ahead in it, below while West Georgia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:24 West Georgia converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +0% WGA WGA: Punt
2 Q1 10:33 Holding on West Georgia, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% ARST ARST: Punt
3 Q1 6:45 Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% WGA ARST: Punt
4 Q1 5:05 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% ARST ARST: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:14 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% ARST ARST: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:40 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% WGA WGA: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:19 West Georgia fumbled and Arkansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unnecessary Roughness on Arkansas State, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by Arkansas StateSpecial teams +1% ARST WGA: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:21 Arkansas State fumbled and West Georgia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% WGA ARST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

West Georgia 0% · Arkansas State 100%

Final margin
Arkansas State by 45
Luck in points
0.2 for Arkansas State
Luck-adjusted margin
Arkansas State by 44.8
Replay with same day's form
West Georgia 1% · Arkansas State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · West Georgia · Arkansas State

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