luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Southern Miss at Auburn, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Auburn beat Southern Miss 43–8, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Auburn wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Auburn was a 98% favorite.

Final

Southern Miss Golden Eagles 8
Auburn Tigers 43

September 12, 2026 · Jordan-Hare Stadium · Closing line: Auburn −32.5

Luck index +1 Auburn about even · −1 Southern Miss

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Southern Miss wins 0, Auburn wins 10.

  1. 1 USM 24 AUB 30
  2. 2 USM 14 AUB 26
  3. 3 USM 10 AUB 26
  4. 4 USM 17 AUB 34
  5. 5 USM 13 AUB 34
  6. 6 USM 3 AUB 28
  7. 7 USM 3 AUB 31
  8. 8 USM 17 AUB 49
  9. 9 USM 3 AUB 38
  10. 10 USM 0 AUB 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Southern Miss wins 1% of them, Auburn 99%. The line is what actually happened: Auburn by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Southern Miss by 17+0.1%
Southern Miss by 9–160.1%
Southern Miss by 1–80.8%
Level after regulation0.2%
Auburn by 1–83.8%
Auburn by 9–1611.1%
Auburn by 17+83.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to Auburn: the final margin was Auburn by 35, without the luck Auburn by 29.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. McPherson, 47 yds made · 61% expected
  • A. McPherson, 55 yds made · 47% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Southern Miss 10 for 88 yards, Auburn 10 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AUB +0.8 pts
Q1 13:28 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AUB +0.6 pts
Q1 13:08 Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +1.4 pts
Q1 10:53 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% USM +4.4 pts
Q1 10:16 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +1.3 pts
Q1 10:16 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AUB +0.2 pts
Q1 7:45 Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yards 0% AUB +0.9 pts
Q1 5:20 Illegal Formation on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.9 pts
Q1 2:12 Unnecessary Roughness on Southern Miss, 15 yards 0% AUB +1.6 pts
Q2 14:06 Illegal Formation on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AUB +0.3 pts
Q2 9:48 Illegal Block on Auburn, 10 yards 0% USM +0.6 pts
Q2 9:26 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.6 pts
Q2 2:40 Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yards 0% AUB +1.6 pts
Q2 1:04 Holding on Auburn, 3 yards 0% USM +1.9 pts
Q3 14:47 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% USM +1.6 pts
Q3 12:33 Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 15 yards 0% AUB +0.4 pts
Q3 8:26 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.5 pts
Q3 2:40 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards 0% USM +0.6 pts
Q4 7:04 Intentional Grounding on Southern Miss, 3 yards 0% AUB +0.2 pts
Q4 4:44 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% USM +2.2 pts

When it happened

Auburn’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Auburn was ahead in it, below while Southern Miss was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% AUB AUB: Punt
2 Q1 14:50 Return touchdown by AuburnSpecial teams +0% AUB AUB: Punt
3 Q1 12:10 Auburn converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% AUB AUB: Punt
4 Q1 10:53 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% USM USM: Punt
5 Q1 5:20 Illegal Formation on Auburn, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% USM USM: Touchdown
6 Q1 4:52 Auburn converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% AUB AUB: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:40 Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% AUB AUB: Field goal
8 Q2 0:24 Southern Miss’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% USM USM: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Southern Miss 0% · Auburn 100%

Final margin
Auburn by 35
Luck in points
5.3 for Auburn
Luck-adjusted margin
Auburn by 29.7
Replay with same day's form
Southern Miss 1% · Auburn 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Southern Miss · Auburn

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