Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Southern Miss Golden Eagles: luck and expected wins

Southern Miss is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.5 wins. Luck cost 0.5: the 31st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Southern Miss wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Alcorn State	W 49–3	100%	0
Week 2	@ Auburn	L 8–43	1%	−1
Week 3	vs UConn	L 20–48	1%	−1
Week 4	@ Tulane	L 21–24	45%	−45

Wk 1 0 vs ALCN

Wk 2 −1 @ AUB

Wk 3 −1 vs CONN

Wk 4 −45 @ TULN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Southern Miss win chance
Week 6 · Oct 6	at Troy	Troy by 7.0	33%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Arkansas State	Southern Miss by 0.1	50%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Louisiana	Louisiana by 5.7	37%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at UL Monroe	Southern Miss by 9.3	71%
Week 10 · Nov 5	vs James Madison	James Madison by 19.4	12%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech by 9.0	30%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs South Alabama	South Alabama by 1.8	46%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Old Dominion	Old Dominion by 7.7	32%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Southern Miss’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.04	+2.8
Fumble bounces	−0.04	+3.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.16	−14.3
Kicks	−0.35	−12.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Southern Miss takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	@ Louisiana	W 22–10	34%	+66
2025 Week 11	@ Arkansas State	W 27–21	38%	+62
2025 Week 7	@ Georgia Southern	W 38–35	54%	+46
2025 Week 3	vs App State	W 38–22	92%	+8
2025 Week 2	vs Jackson State	W 38–20	94%	+6

Unluckiest losses

Losses Southern Miss would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	@ Louisiana Tech	L 20–30	55%	−55
2025 New Orleans Bowl	vs Western Kentucky	L 16–27	49%	−49
2026 Week 4	@ Tulane	L 21–24	45%	−45
2025 Week 14	vs Troy	L 18–28	37%	−37
2025 Week 13	@ South Alabama	L 35–42	29%	−29

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	7–5	6.4	+0.6	2–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Mississippi State	L 17–34	4%	−4
Week 2	vs Jackson State	W 38–20	94%	+6
Week 3	vs App State	W 38–22	92%	+8
Week 4	@ Louisiana Tech	L 20–30	55%	−55
Week 5	vs Jacksonville State	W 42–25	99%	+1
Week 7	@ Georgia Southern	W 38–35	54%	+46
Week 8	@ Louisiana	W 22–10	34%	+66
Week 9	vs UL Monroe	W 49–21	99%	+1
Week 11	@ Arkansas State	W 27–21	38%	+62
Week 12	vs Texas State	L 14–41	3%	−3
Week 13	@ South Alabama	L 35–42	29%	−29
Week 14	vs Troy	L 18–28	37%	−37
New Orleans Bowl	vs Western Kentucky	L 16–27	49%	−49