luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Mississippi State at Southern Miss, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Mississippi State beat Southern Miss 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Mississippi State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Mississippi State was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:06 left): Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to Southern Miss.

Final

Mississippi State Bulldogs 34
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 17

August 30, 2025 · M. M. Roberts Stadium · Closing line: Mississippi State −11.5

Luck index +4 Mississippi State about even · −4 Southern Miss

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mississippi State wins 10, Southern Miss wins 0.

  1. 1 MSST 49 USM 3
  2. 2 MSST 36 USM 0
  3. 3 MSST 35 USM 3
  4. 4 MSST 35 USM 7
  5. 5 MSST 31 USM 7
  6. 6 MSST 21 USM 0
  7. 7 MSST 28 USM 10
  8. 8 MSST 21 USM 6
  9. 9 MSST 34 USM 23
  10. 10 MSST 23 USM 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mississippi State wins 96% of them, Southern Miss 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mississippi State by 17+73.6%
Mississippi State by 9–1613.2%
Mississippi State by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.4%
Southern Miss by 1–82.1%
Southern Miss by 9–160.8%
Southern Miss by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to Mississippi State: the final margin was Mississippi State by 17, without the luck Mississippi State by 13.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Harradine, 43 yds made · 67% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 55 yds made · 45% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 30 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mississippi State 14 for 119 yards, Southern Miss 8 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:43 Delay of Game on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.8 pts
Q1 7:32 Illegal Substitution on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MSST +1.2 pts
Q1 6:08 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +1% USM +0.6 pts
Q1 4:34 Illegal Formation on Mississippi State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% USM +2.1 pts
Q2 3:47 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +3% USM +1.5 pts
Q2 3:29 Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 10 yards +2% MSST +1.2 pts
Q2 3:00 Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 8 yards 0% MSST +0.2 pts
Q2 2:05 Offside on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.1 pts
Q2 1:25 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USM +0.8 pts
Q2 0:06 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% USM +4.5 pts
Q3 13:08 Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yards +5% MSST +2.7 pts
Q3 11:36 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +2% USM +1.3 pts
Q3 10:00 Illegal Formation on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% USM +2.0 pts
Q3 7:56 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards 0% USM +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.6 pts
Q4 12:33 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.7 pts
Q4 8:29 Holding on Mississippi State, 4 yards 0% USM +0.5 pts
Q4 4:57 Delay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.4 pts
Q4 4:40 Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards 0% MSST +0.8 pts
Q4 2:59 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 15 yards 0% USM +0.8 pts
Q4 2:52 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards 0% USM +0.6 pts
Q4 1:06 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 15 yards 0% USM +1.5 pts

When it happened

Southern Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Southern Miss was ahead in it, below while Mississippi State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% MSST MSST: Turnover
2 Q1 3:35 K. Ferrie made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 45% expected for him, 7 of 10 from 45+ before +4% MSST MSST: Punt
3 Q2 14:54 Southern Miss was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +4% MSST USM: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:51 Southern Miss converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% USM USM: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:21 Southern Miss converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% USM USM: Punt
6 Q2 0:06 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% USM USM: End of half
7 Q3 14:09 Southern Miss converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% USM USM: Punt
8 Q3 13:08 Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% MSST MSST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mississippi State 97% · Southern Miss 3%

Final margin
Mississippi State by 17
Luck in points
3.6 for Mississippi State
Luck-adjusted margin
Mississippi State by 13.4
Replay with same day's form
Mississippi State 96% · Southern Miss 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Mississippi State · Southern Miss

More from Week 1 2025

Every week 1 game, 2025