Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Old Dominion at Indiana, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Old Dominion 27–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 14 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Indiana lucky · −39 Old Dominion
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 4, Indiana wins 6.
- 1 ODU 28 IU 6
- 2 ODU 31 IU 17
- 3 ODU 35 IU 28
- 4 ODU 24 IU 21
- 5 ODU 21 IU 24
- 6 ODU 10 IU 17
- 7 ODU 21 IU 31
- 8 ODU 21 IU 34
- 9 ODU 10 IU 27
- 10 ODU 24 IU 50
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Old Dominion wins 39% of them, Indiana 61%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 7.5% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 17.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 16.4% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 22.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Radicic, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- N. Radicic, 52 yds missed · 52% expected
- N. Radicic, 25 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Old Dominion 7 for 55 yards, Indiana 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:41 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:38 | Personal Foul on Indiana, 15 yards | +4% IU +4.2 pts |
| Q2 7:15 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:57 | Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards | +2% IU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 3:51 | Block Below the Waist on Old Dominion, 5 yards | +4% IU +4.9 pts |
| Q2 2:25 | Running Into the Kicker on Indiana, 5 yards | 0% ODU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:43 | Illegal Formation on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:06 | Unnecessary Roughness on Old Dominion, 15 yards | 0% IU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:58 | Offside on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:41 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% IU | IU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 0:30 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% IU | ODU: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 13:38 | Personal Foul on Indiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% IU | ODU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:45 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +2% ODU | ODU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 5:57 | Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% IU | IU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 4:28 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +1% ODU | IU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:51 | Block Below the Waist on Old Dominion, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +4% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 3:36 | Indiana converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% IU | IU: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Old Dominion 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 13
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for Old Dominion
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 18.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Old Dominion 39% · Indiana 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Old Dominion · 
Indiana
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAlbany at Iowa IOWA 34–7 · replay 93% for the winner