Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
UAlbany at Iowa, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat UAlbany 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa was a 99% favorite.
Final
 UAlbany Great Danes | 7 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Iowa about even · −7 UAlbany
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UAlbany wins 1, Iowa wins 9.
- 1 UALB 14 IOWA 7
- 2 UALB 10 IOWA 13
- 3 UALB 14 IOWA 21
- 4 UALB 7 IOWA 19
- 5 UALB 10 IOWA 24
- 6 UALB 10 IOWA 27
- 7 UALB 3 IOWA 24
- 8 UALB 6 IOWA 31
- 9 UALB 7 IOWA 35
- 10 UALB 0 IOWA 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UAlbany wins 7% of them, Iowa 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UAlbany by 17+ | 0.4% |
| UAlbany by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| UAlbany by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 16.2% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 16.9% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 59.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Stevens, 28 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Stevens, 55 yds made · 47% expected
Penalties: UAlbany 3 for 15 yards, Iowa 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:26 | Illegal Formation on UAlbany, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | False Start on UAlbany, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:25 | Illegal Formation on UAlbany, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:32 | Ineligible Downfield on Iowa, 5 yards | 0% UALB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:43 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | 0% UALB +2.5 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:10 | UAlbany converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% UALB | UALB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:26 | UAlbany was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% IOWA | UALB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:31 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% UALB | IOWA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:33 | UAlbany converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% UALB | UALB: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 7:28 | Iowa converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 5:25 | Illegal Formation on UAlbany, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:51 | Iowa converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% IOWA | IOWA: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 6:21 | Iowa converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UAlbany 0% · Iowa 100%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 27
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for Iowa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 19.1
- Replay with same day's form
- UAlbany 7% · Iowa 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
UAlbany · 
Iowa
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Maine at Liberty LIB 28–7 · replay 75% for the winner
- Bryant at New Mexico State NMSU 19–3 · replay 79% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Colorado State at Washington WASH 38–21 · replay 96% for the winner