luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Bryant at New Mexico State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

New Mexico State beat Bryant 19–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff New Mexico State was a 90% favorite.

Final

Bryant Bulldogs 3
New Mexico State Aggies 19

August 30, 2025 · Aggie Memorial Stadium · Closing line: New Mexico State −19.5

Luck index +21 New Mexico State about even · −21 Bryant

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bryant wins 2, New Mexico State wins 8.

  1. 1 BRY 20 NMSU 7
  2. 2 BRY 20 NMSU 17
  3. 3 BRY 14 NMSU 17
  4. 4 BRY 7 NMSU 12
  5. 5 BRY 13 NMSU 20
  6. 6 BRY 3 NMSU 13
  7. 7 BRY 10 NMSU 22
  8. 8 BRY 9 NMSU 23
  9. 9 BRY 3 NMSU 23
  10. 10 BRY 9 NMSU 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bryant wins 21% of them, New Mexico State 79%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico State by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bryant by 17+2.6%
Bryant by 9–166.7%
Bryant by 1–811.5%
Level after regulation4.1%
New Mexico State by 1–822.4%
New Mexico State by 9–1622.8%
New Mexico State by 17+29.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to Bryant: the final margin was New Mexico State by 16, without the luck New Mexico State by 20.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Soli, 43 yds made · 66% expected
  • R. Hawk, 41 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Hawk, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bryant 8 for 70 yards, New Mexico State 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:26 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BRY +0.5 pts
Q1 9:22 False Start on Bryant, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +0.8 pts
Q1 3:59 Penalty on New Mexico State, 10 yards +1% BRY +0.6 pts
Q1 3:23 Offside on Bryant, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NMSU +0.8 pts
Q1 0:26 Offside on Bryant, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NMSU +3.1 pts
Q2 9:40 Personal Foul on New Mexico State, 15 yards +2% BRY +1.8 pts
Q2 7:10 Personal Foul on Bryant, 15 yards +2% NMSU +2.3 pts
Q2 3:39 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BRY +0.5 pts
Q2 1:00 Holding on Bryant, 10 yards +1% NMSU +0.4 pts
Q3 12:49 Penalty on New Mexico State, 15 yards +6% BRY +5.8 pts
Q3 3:41 Holding on Bryant, 10 yards +2% NMSU +1.3 pts
Q4 8:35 Holding on Bryant, 10 yards +1% NMSU +1.9 pts
Q4 6:20 Illegal Substitution on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BRY +5.4 pts
Q4 3:18 Holding on Bryant, 10 yards 0% NMSU +0.8 pts

When it happened

New Mexico State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while New Mexico State was ahead in it, below while Bryant was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:51 Bryant converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% BRY BRY: Field goal
2 Q1 0:26 Offside on Bryant, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% NMSU NMSU: Field goal
3 Q3 12:49 Penalty on New Mexico State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% BRY BRY: Punt
4 Q3 6:55 Bryant converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% BRY BRY: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 6:05 Bryant converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% BRY BRY: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 3:48 Bryant was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% NMSU BRY: Punt
7 Q4 14:05 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% NMSU NMSU: Field goal
8 Q4 9:27 Bryant was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +2% NMSU BRY: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bryant 1% · New Mexico State 99%

Final margin
New Mexico State by 16
Luck in points
4.2 for Bryant
Luck-adjusted margin
New Mexico State by 20.2
Replay with same day's form
Bryant 21% · New Mexico State 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Bryant · New Mexico State

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