Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
SE Louisiana at Louisiana Tech, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat SE Louisiana 24–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisiana Tech wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 15:00 left): Offside on SE Louisiana, 5 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.
Final
 SE Louisiana Lions | 0 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Louisiana Tech about even · −9 SE Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SE Louisiana wins 1, Louisiana Tech wins 9.
- 1 SELA 20 LT 14
- 2 SELA 20 LT 23
- 3 SELA 0 LT 7
- 4 SELA 16 LT 27
- 5 SELA 9 LT 24
- 6 SELA 23 LT 41
- 7 SELA 14 LT 36
- 8 SELA 3 LT 27
- 9 SELA 7 LT 36
- 10 SELA 0 LT 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
SE Louisiana wins 9% of them, Louisiana Tech 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SE Louisiana by 17+ | 0.6% |
| SE Louisiana by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| SE Louisiana by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 59.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: SE Louisiana 7 for 43 yards, Louisiana Tech 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:13 | False Start on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:01 | False Start on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:47 | Personal Foul on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +1% SELA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:21 | Holding on SE Louisiana, 3 yards, wiping out the play | +2% LT +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:56 | Intentional Grounding on Louisiana Tech, 0 yards | +1% SELA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SELA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:03 | Unnecessary Roughness on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +3% SELA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:03 | Illegal Formation on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on SE Louisiana, 15 yards | +1% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +15% LT +4.2 pts |
| Q3 5:12 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | 0% SELA +3.1 pts |
| Q3 5:12 | False Start on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +2.0 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:34 | SE Louisiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% SELA | SELA: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 10:56 | SE Louisiana converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +4% SELA | SELA: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 6:26 | SE Louisiana was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedLouisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +7% LT | SELA: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 4:42 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedSE Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +5% SELA | LT: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 4:25 | SE Louisiana converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedSE Louisiana fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% SELA | SELA: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 15:00 | Offside on SE Louisiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +15% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:00 | D. Henderson made a 18-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him | +5% SELA | LT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 5:12 | SE Louisiana converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedSE Louisiana converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedSE Louisiana fumbled and Louisiana Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on SE Louisiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by Louisiana TechSpecial teams | +4% LT | SELA: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SE Louisiana 0% · Louisiana Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 24
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for SE Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 25.0
- Replay with same day's form
- SE Louisiana 9% · Louisiana Tech 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
SE Louisiana · 
Louisiana Tech
More from Week 1 2025
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