luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025

Jacksonville State at UCF, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

UCF beat Jacksonville State 17–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. Jacksonville State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.

Before kickoff UCF was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:35 left): Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 22 points of win probability to UCF.

Final

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 10
UCF Knights 17

August 28, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: UCF −16.5

Luck index +21 UCF about even · −21 Jacksonville State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 2, UCF wins 8.

  1. 1 JXST 24 UCF 10
  2. 2 JXST 17 UCF 14
  3. 3 JXST 26 UCF 28
  4. 4 JXST 31 UCF 38
  5. 5 JXST 21 UCF 31
  6. 6 JXST 7 UCF 21
  7. 7 JXST 26 UCF 44
  8. 8 JXST 7 UCF 28
  9. 9 JXST 6 UCF 31
  10. 10 JXST 10 UCF 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jacksonville State wins 21% of them, UCF 79%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jacksonville State by 17+3.0%
Jacksonville State by 9–166.5%
Jacksonville State by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation4.1%
UCF by 1–820.6%
UCF by 9–1619.1%
UCF by 17+35.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to UCF: the final margin was UCF by 7, without the luck UCF by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Rippa, 35 yds blocked · 80% expected
  • A. Venneri, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Rippa, 42 yds made · 68% expected
  • A. Venneri, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jacksonville State 7 for 60 yards, UCF 9 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:33 Offside on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JXST +1.7 pts
Q1 9:33 False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UCF +1.2 pts
Q2 10:45 Targeting on Jacksonville State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% UCF +4.8 pts
Q2 7:47 Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JXST +4.5 pts
Q2 6:19 Chop Block on UCF, 15 yards +2% JXST +1.3 pts
Q2 4:50 False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.5 pts
Q2 1:23 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCF, 15 yards 0% JXST +0.4 pts
Q3 14:51 Delay of Game on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UCF +0.8 pts
Q3 14:21 Offside on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% JXST 0.0 pts
Q3 11:24 False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.5 pts
Q3 8:30 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JXST +1.6 pts
Q3 2:35 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JXST +1.3 pts
Q3 1:07 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards +6% UCF +1.6 pts
Q4 1:53 Offside on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JXST +0.3 pts
Q4 1:19 Targeting on Jacksonville State, 15 yards 0% UCF +1.6 pts
Q4 0:35 Targeting on UCF, 15 yards +2% JXST +0.8 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while Jacksonville State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:45 Targeting on Jacksonville State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% UCF UCF: Punt
2 Q3 13:14 Jacksonville State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% JXST JXST: Punt
3 Q4 12:34 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% JXST JXST: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:27 UCF converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +14% UCF UCF: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:08 A. Venneri missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him +17% JXST UCF: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:56 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +20% JXST JXST: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:35 Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +22% UCF JXST: Turnover
8 Q4 1:03 UCF converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +14% UCF UCF: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jacksonville State 43% · UCF 57%

Final margin
UCF by 7
Luck in points
5.4 for UCF
Luck-adjusted margin
UCF by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Jacksonville State 21% · UCF 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Jacksonville State · UCF

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