Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025
Georgia Tech at Colorado, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Colorado 27–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Tech wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:25 left): Colorado converted 3rd & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to Colorado.
Final
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 27 |
|---|---|
 Colorado Buffaloes | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Georgia Tech about even · −12 Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Tech wins 9, Colorado wins 1.
- 1 GT 52 COLO 14
- 2 GT 42 COLO 13
- 3 GT 35 COLO 10
- 4 GT 35 COLO 14
- 5 GT 35 COLO 17
- 6 GT 27 COLO 13
- 7 GT 35 COLO 24
- 8 GT 30 COLO 23
- 9 GT 27 COLO 24
- 10 GT 17 COLO 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Tech wins 88% of them, Colorado 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 50.2% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 15.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 7.9% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Colorado by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- A. Mata, 42 yds made · 70% expected
- A. Birr, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- A. Mata, 29 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Georgia Tech 7 for 50 yards, Colorado 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:55 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yards | +3% GT +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:20 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | +2% COLO +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:24 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards | +3% GT +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:28 | Face Mask on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | +9% COLO +3.7 pts |
| Q2 9:33 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards | +6% GT +2.5 pts |
| Q2 8:13 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:18 | False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:01 | Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:54 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:21 | Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 5 yards | +3% COLO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:58 | Illegal Snap on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% COLO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% COLO +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Colorado’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:28 | Face Mask on Georgia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 9:33 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 2:37 | Colorado converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% COLO | COLO: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 13:01 | Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedDelay of Game on Colorado, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% GT | COLO: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 11:24 | Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +8% GT | COLO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:25 | Colorado converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:27 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +5% COLO | GT: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:05 | Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% GT | COLO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Tech 53% · Colorado 47%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Tech by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Tech 88% · Colorado 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Georgia Tech · 
Colorado
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner