luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025

Kennesaw State at Wake Forest, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Wake Forest beat Kennesaw State 10–9, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Wake Forest was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:51 left): Kennesaw State was stopped on 4th & 9, worth 12 points of win probability to Wake Forest.

Final

Kennesaw State Owls 9
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 10

August 29, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Wake Forest −17.5

Luck index +21 Wake Forest about even · −21 Kennesaw State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 2, Wake Forest wins 8.

  1. 1 KENN 14 WAKE 3
  2. 2 KENN 10 WAKE 7
  3. 3 KENN 21 WAKE 23
  4. 4 KENN 6 WAKE 10
  5. 5 KENN 7 WAKE 14
  6. 6 KENN 3 WAKE 13
  7. 7 KENN 7 WAKE 20
  8. 8 KENN 7 WAKE 23
  9. 9 KENN 3 WAKE 23
  10. 10 KENN 7 WAKE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kennesaw State wins 21% of them, Wake Forest 79%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kennesaw State by 17+2.3%
Kennesaw State by 9–165.3%
Kennesaw State by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation3.8%
Wake Forest by 1–823.0%
Wake Forest by 9–1622.8%
Wake Forest by 17+30.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to Kennesaw State: the final margin was Wake Forest by 1, without the luck Wake Forest by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Williams, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
  • C. Calvert, 54 yds blocked · 47% expected
  • D. Kinney, 29 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Calvert, 22 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kennesaw State 9 for 72 yards, Wake Forest 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:00 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards +1% KENN +1.0 pts
Q2 13:02 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.6 pts
Q2 7:31 Delay of Game on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.8 pts
Q2 6:01 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN +0.3 pts
Q2 1:26 Illegal Shift on Wake Forest, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% KENN +1.2 pts
Q2 1:14 Offside on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAKE +0.3 pts
Q2 1:10 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN +0.2 pts
Q3 7:28 Penalty on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +3% WAKE +1.2 pts
Q3 5:28 Penalty on Kennesaw State, 12 yards +4% WAKE +1.5 pts
Q3 0:46 Penalty on Kennesaw State, 15 yards +4% WAKE +1.4 pts
Q3 0:29 Penalty on Kennesaw State, 10 yards 0% WAKE +1.0 pts
Q4 8:18 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wake Forest, 15 yards 0% KENN +4.3 pts
Q4 7:43 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAKE +0.6 pts
Q4 2:28 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% KENN +1.8 pts

When it happened

Wake Forest’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wake Forest was ahead in it, below while Kennesaw State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:16 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% KENN KENN: Field goal
2 Q3 11:30 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% KENN KENN: Field goal
3 Q3 2:07 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% KENN KENN: Punt
4 Q4 8:48 Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +6% KENN WAKE: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:23 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% WAKE WAKE: Punt
6 Q4 2:28 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% KENN KENN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:13 Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +6% KENN WAKE: Punt
8 Q4 1:51 Kennesaw State was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% WAKE –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kennesaw State 28% · Wake Forest 72%

Final margin
Wake Forest by 1
Luck in points
2.8 for Kennesaw State
Luck-adjusted margin
Wake Forest by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Kennesaw State 21% · Wake Forest 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Kennesaw State · Wake Forest

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