luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025

Delaware State at Delaware, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Delaware beat Delaware State 35–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Delaware wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Delaware was a 98% favorite.

Final

Delaware State Hornets 17
Delaware Blue Hens 35

August 28, 2025 · Delaware Stadium · Closing line: Delaware −30.5

Luck index +16 Delaware about even · −16 Delaware State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Delaware State wins 2, Delaware wins 8.

  1. 1 DSU 24 DEL 12
  2. 2 DSU 24 DEL 21
  3. 3 DSU 14 DEL 17
  4. 4 DSU 21 DEL 27
  5. 5 DSU 14 DEL 23
  6. 6 DSU 20 DEL 31
  7. 7 DSU 14 DEL 30
  8. 8 DSU 17 DEL 38
  9. 9 DSU 10 DEL 35
  10. 10 DSU 7 DEL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Delaware State wins 16% of them, Delaware 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Delaware State by 17+1.8%
Delaware State by 9–164.2%
Delaware State by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Delaware by 1–822.9%
Delaware by 9–1619.3%
Delaware by 17+41.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to Delaware State: the final margin was Delaware by 18, without the luck Delaware by 20.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • P. Fisher-Butler, 40 yds made · 72% expected
  • N. Reed, 47 yds missed · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Delaware State 13 for 79 yards, Delaware 7 for 92 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:35 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Delaware, 2 yards 0% DEL +0.8 pts
Q1 2:57 Delay of Game on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DSU +0.4 pts
Q2 15:00 Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DSU +2.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Offside on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.3 pts
Q2 11:33 Holding on Delaware State, 10 yards +1% DEL +1.3 pts
Q2 11:33 Holding on Delaware State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DEL +1.5 pts
Q2 11:33 False Start on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.4 pts
Q2 6:46 Illegal Formation on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DSU +1.0 pts
Q2 6:46 False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DSU +0.4 pts
Q2 3:44 Delay of Game on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.4 pts
Q2 2:40 Illegal Substitution on Delaware State, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% DSU +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Personal Foul on Delaware, 50 yards 0% DSU +1.3 pts
Q3 10:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Delaware State, 0 yards 0% DEL 0.0 pts
Q3 7:15 False Start on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.5 pts
Q3 7:15 Illegal Substitution on Delaware, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Holding on Delaware State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DEL +3.5 pts
Q4 10:35 Delay of Game on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.7 pts
Q4 8:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Delaware State, 0 yards 0% DEL 0.0 pts
Q4 6:15 Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards 0% DSU +1.6 pts
Q4 6:15 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Delaware State, 15 yards 0% DEL +1.9 pts

When it happened

Delaware’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Delaware was ahead in it, below while Delaware State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:35 Delaware State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedDelaware fumbled and Delaware State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Delaware, 2 yardsJudgment calls +1% DSU DSU: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedHolding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsOffside on Delaware State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% DSU DEL: Punt
3 Q2 11:33 Delaware State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedDelaware State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedDelaware State was stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedHolding on Delaware State, 10 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Delaware State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Delaware State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% DEL DSU: Field goal
4 Q2 6:46 P. Fisher-Butler made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for himIllegal Formation on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% DSU DSU: Punt
5 Q3 15:00 Delaware State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedDelaware State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Personal Foul on Delaware, 50 yardsJudgment calls +1% DSU DSU: Touchdown
6 Q3 7:15 Delaware converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on Delaware State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Substitution on Delaware, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +2% DEL DEL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 13:00 Delaware State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedN. Reed missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +1% DSU DSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:44 Return touchdown by DelawareSpecial teams +2% DEL DEL: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Delaware State 0% · Delaware 100%

Final margin
Delaware by 18
Luck in points
2.1 for Delaware State
Luck-adjusted margin
Delaware by 20.1
Replay with same day's form
Delaware State 16% · Delaware 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Delaware State · Delaware

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