Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Morgan State at South Alabama, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
South Alabama beat Morgan State 38–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Alabama wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff South Alabama was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Morgan State Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 South Alabama about even · −6 Morgan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Morgan State wins 1, South Alabama wins 9.
- 1 MORG 30 USA 24
- 2 MORG 28 USA 31
- 3 MORG 31 USA 40
- 4 MORG 10 USA 24
- 5 MORG 24 USA 41
- 6 MORG 20 USA 41
- 7 MORG 16 USA 41
- 8 MORG 10 USA 41
- 9 MORG 3 USA 41
- 10 MORG 20 USA 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Morgan State wins 6% of them, South Alabama 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Alabama by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Morgan State by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Morgan State by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Morgan State by 1–8 | 3.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 9.8% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 12.8% |
| South Alabama by 17+ | 71.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Morgan State 11 for 61 yards, South Alabama 8 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:30 | Holding on Morgan State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% USA +3.0 pts |
| Q1 8:47 | False Start on Morgan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:41 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 11 yards | +2% MORG +2.7 pts |
| Q1 0:31 | Ineligible Downfield on Morgan State, 5 yards | 0% USA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:00 | Targeting on Morgan State, 6 yards | 0% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +1% MORG +1.6 pts |
| Q2 14:02 | False Start on Morgan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:47 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MORG +3.3 pts |
| Q2 9:32 | Intentional Grounding on Morgan State, 0 yards | 0% USA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 7:27 | Illegal Formation on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MORG +0.2 pts |
| Q2 7:05 | Holding on Morgan State, 10 yards | 0% USA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:52 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MORG +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:49 | False Start on Morgan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:22 | Roughing the Passer on South Alabama, 4 yards | +1% MORG +3.1 pts |
| Q4 13:38 | Delay of Game on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MORG +0.5 pts |
| Q4 12:06 | Holding on Morgan State, 10 yards | 0% USA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:19 | Delay of Game on Morgan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.2 pts |
| Q4 3:24 | Unnecessary Roughness on Morgan State, 0 yards | 0% USA 0.0 pts |
| Q4 2:34 | Delay of Game on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MORG +0.7 pts |
When it happened
South Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:26 | Morgan State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +1% MORG | MORG: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:49 | Morgan State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +1% MORG | MORG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:30 | Holding on Morgan State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:41 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MORG | MORG: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:19 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% MORG | USA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:04 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +1% MORG | USA: Turnover |
| 7 | Q1 0:39 | South Alabama fumbled and Morgan State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% MORG | USA: End of half |
| 8 | Q1 0:19 | Morgan State fumbled and South Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% USA | MORG: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Morgan State 0% · South Alabama 100%
- Final margin
- South Alabama by 17
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for Morgan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Alabama by 25.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Morgan State 6% · South Alabama 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Morgan State · 
South Alabama
More from Week 1 2025
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