Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Eastern Michigan at Texas State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat Eastern Michigan 52–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas State was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 27 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Texas State about even · −5 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 1, Texas State wins 9.
- 1 EMU 31 TXST 24
- 2 EMU 56 TXST 59
- 3 EMU 23 TXST 31
- 4 EMU 21 TXST 34
- 5 EMU 35 TXST 51
- 6 EMU 28 TXST 48
- 7 EMU 30 TXST 56
- 8 EMU 14 TXST 45
- 9 EMU 20 TXST 55
- 10 EMU 21 TXST 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Michigan wins 5% of them, Texas State 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 3.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 14.7% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 70.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Kessinger, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Robles, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Kessinger, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Eastern Michigan 6 for 50 yards, Texas State 6 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:52 | Illegal Substitution on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 14:19 | Face Mask on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | +1% TXST +0.7 pts |
| Q1 13:11 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% EMU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:04 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:39 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 7 yards | +2% EMU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:09 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% EMU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:56 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% EMU +5.8 pts |
| Q2 2:43 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TXST +2.2 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:18 | Delay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:35 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | 0% TXST +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:19 | Texas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:04 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:39 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +2% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:11 | Texas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 8:43 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% EMU | TXST: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 4:35 | Texas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% TXST | TXST: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 3:56 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 2:43 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% TXST | TXST: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Michigan 0% · Texas State 100%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 25
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for Eastern Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 26.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Michigan 5% · Texas State 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Eastern Michigan · 
Texas State
More from Week 1 2025
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner