luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Nicholls at Troy, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Troy beat Nicholls 38–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Troy wins 8 of 10. Nicholls had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Nicholls.

Before kickoff Troy was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:49 left): Troy was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to Nicholls.

Final

Nicholls Colonels 20
Troy Trojans 38

August 30, 2025 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Closing line: Troy −16.5

Luck index +15 Troy about even · −15 Nicholls

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Nicholls wins 2, Troy wins 8.

  1. 1 NICH 34 TROY 20
  2. 2 NICH 34 TROY 31
  3. 3 NICH 21 TROY 24
  4. 4 NICH 21 TROY 28
  5. 5 NICH 28 TROY 38
  6. 6 NICH 17 TROY 30
  7. 7 NICH 20 TROY 37
  8. 8 NICH 17 TROY 37
  9. 9 NICH 13 TROY 40
  10. 10 NICH 3 TROY 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Nicholls wins 15% of them, Troy 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Nicholls by 17+2.0%
Nicholls by 9–164.3%
Nicholls by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation1.8%
Troy by 1–820.9%
Troy by 9–1619.3%
Troy by 17+43.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to Troy: the final margin was Troy by 18, without the luck Troy by 16.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Showalter, 45 yds made · 60% expected
  • S. Taylor Renfroe, 24 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Showalter, 22 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Nicholls 6 for 45 yards, Troy 7 for 85 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:13 False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NICH +0.7 pts
Q1 7:26 Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards +3% NICH +1.8 pts
Q1 7:15 Holding on Nicholls, 10 yards +2% TROY +1.3 pts
Q1 0:29 Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards +1% NICH +2.2 pts
Q2 14:00 False Start on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TROY +0.4 pts
Q2 5:49 Face Mask on Troy, 15 yards +3% NICH +1.4 pts
Q2 5:49 Face Mask on Troy, 15 yards +2% NICH +0.9 pts
Q2 5:49 False Start on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TROY +0.4 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TROY +0.7 pts
Q4 12:33 Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards +5% NICH +1.2 pts
Q4 10:36 Roughing the Passer on Nicholls, 15 yards +7% TROY +1.6 pts
Q4 6:08 False Start on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TROY +1.0 pts
Q4 1:56 Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NICH +0.3 pts

When it happened

Troy’s chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Troy was ahead in it, below while Nicholls was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:49 Troy was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedNicholls converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedFace Mask on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment callsFace Mask on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Nicholls, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% NICH TROY: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:01 Troy converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% TROY TROY: Field goal
3 Q3 15:00 Nicholls converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on Nicholls, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% NICH NICH: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:59 Troy was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NICH TROY: Field goal
5 Q4 14:09 Troy converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +3% TROY TROY: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:33 Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% NICH NICH: Field goal
7 Q4 10:41 G. Showalter made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +7% TROY NICH: Turnover
8 Q4 10:36 Roughing the Passer on Nicholls, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% TROY TROY: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Nicholls 0% · Troy 100%

Final margin
Troy by 18
Luck in points
1.7 for Troy
Luck-adjusted margin
Troy by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
Nicholls 15% · Troy 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Nicholls · Troy

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