Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Arkansas State beat Southeast Missouri State 42–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arkansas State was an 84% favorite.
Final
 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Arkansas State about even · −2 Southeast Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southeast Missouri State wins 0, Arkansas State wins 10.
- 1 SEMO 10 ARST 17
- 2 SEMO 13 ARST 24
- 3 SEMO 14 ARST 30
- 4 SEMO 0 ARST 20
- 5 SEMO 10 ARST 31
- 6 SEMO 10 ARST 35
- 7 SEMO 0 ARST 28
- 8 SEMO 3 ARST 35
- 9 SEMO 7 ARST 45
- 10 SEMO 7 ARST 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southeast Missouri State wins 2% of them, Arkansas State 98%. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southeast Missouri State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Southeast Missouri State by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Southeast Missouri State by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 11.7% |
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 79.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Southeast Missouri State 7 for 51 yards, Arkansas State 7 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEMO +2.7 pts |
| Q1 9:13 | Holding on Southeast Missouri State, 0 yards | +1% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:13 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:03 | Pass Interference on Southeast Missouri State, 15 yards | +1% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:13 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +2% SEMO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:13 | Holding on Southeast Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:37 | Pass Interference on Southeast Missouri State, 1 yard | 0% ARST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:18 | Pass Interference on Southeast Missouri State, 15 yards | 0% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:18 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:16 | False Start on Southeast Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | 0% SEMO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:51 | Personal Foul on Arkansas State, 15 yards | 0% SEMO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:51 | Offside on Southeast Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:43 | Personal Foul on Arkansas State, 15 yards | 0% SEMO +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:13 | Southeast Missouri State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedSoutheast Missouri State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedSoutheast Missouri State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedSoutheast Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +5% SEMO | SEMO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | Southeast Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% ARST | SEMO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 14:03 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedJ. Keller made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for himPass Interference on Southeast Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:13 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Southeast Missouri State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% SEMO | SEMO: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 9:19 | Southeast Missouri State fumbled and Arkansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% ARST | SEMO: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:05 | Southeast Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% SEMO | SEMO: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:18 | Arkansas State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedSoutheast Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% SEMO | ARST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:37 | Arkansas State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedPass Interference on Southeast Missouri State, 1 yardJudgment calls | +1% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southeast Missouri State 0% · Arkansas State 100%
- Final margin
- Arkansas State by 18
- Luck in points
- 5.6 for Southeast Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas State by 23.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Southeast Missouri State 2% · Arkansas State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Southeast Missouri State · 
Arkansas State
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