Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Marshall at Georgia, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Marshall 45–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 7 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Georgia about even · 0 Marshall
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Marshall wins 0, Georgia wins 10.
- 1 MRSH 23 UGA 33
- 2 MRSH 17 UGA 35
- 3 MRSH 3 UGA 27
- 4 MRSH 3 UGA 30
- 5 MRSH 14 UGA 45
- 6 MRSH 10 UGA 44
- 7 MRSH 0 UGA 38
- 8 MRSH 7 UGA 49
- 9 MRSH 6 UGA 54
- 10 MRSH 7 UGA 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Marshall wins 0% of them, Georgia 100%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Georgia by 17+ | 94.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Marshall 5 for 35 yards, Georgia 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:08 | Delay of Game on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:02 | Illegal Formation on Marshall, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% UGA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:05 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | 0% UGA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 13:13 | Illegal Formation on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:52 | Delay of Game on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:13 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | 0% UGA +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:46 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% UGA | MRSH: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:21 | Georgia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:32 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +0% MRSH | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:55 | Georgia converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +0% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:02 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% UGA | MRSH: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 4:37 | Georgia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 3:02 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% MRSH | UGA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:02 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedIllegal Formation on Marshall, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +0% UGA | MRSH: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Marshall 0% · Georgia 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 38
- Luck in points
- 10.9 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 27.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Marshall 0% · Georgia 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Marshall · 
Georgia
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner