Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Alabama at Florida State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida State beat Alabama 31–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 9 of 10. Alabama had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Alabama.
An off day for Alabama: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Florida State it would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff Alabama was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:49 left): Holding on Florida State, 10 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to Alabama.
Final
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 17 |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Florida State about even · −8 Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Alabama wins 1, Florida State wins 9.
- 1 ALA 21 FSU 14
- 2 ALA 7 FSU 10
- 3 ALA 6 FSU 13
- 4 ALA 28 FSU 38
- 5 ALA 7 FSU 20
- 6 ALA 0 FSU 16
- 7 ALA 13 FSU 31
- 8 ALA 10 FSU 31
- 9 ALA 0 FSU 26
- 10 ALA 3 FSU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Alabama
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Florida State it would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
63 points apart for Alabama: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.08 | worse by 0.12 |
| Alabama defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.02 | worse by 0.20 |
| Florida State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | −0.01 | better by 0.22 |
| Florida State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.09 | better by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Alabama wins 8% of them, Florida State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida State by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Alabama by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Florida State by 17+ | 51.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Talty, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- J. Weinberg, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- C. Talty, 40 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Alabama 8 for 70 yards, Florida State 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:36 | Offside on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FSU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 5:16 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards | +3% FSU +2.4 pts |
| Q1 4:32 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yards | +1% ALA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:25 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:09 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ALA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:18 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards | +3% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:49 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yards | +9% ALA +3.8 pts |
| Q3 6:40 | Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:00 | Personal Foul on Alabama, 15 yards | +4% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:48 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards | +3% ALA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | Personal Foul on Alabama, 15 yards | +9% FSU +2.5 pts |
| Q4 6:46 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Florida State’s chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 10:31 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +5% FSU | ALA: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q3 10:22 | Alabama was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% FSU | ALA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:45 | Alabama converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% ALA | ALA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 6:49 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% ALA | ALA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 1:56 | Florida State fumbled and Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ALA | FSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 0:55 | Alabama was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% FSU | ALA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:09 | Florida State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +5% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 8:30 | Personal Foul on Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Alabama 12% · Florida State 88%
- Final margin
- Florida State by 14
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Florida State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida State by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Alabama 8% · Florida State 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Alabama · 
Florida State
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner