Week 1 2025 · August 23, 2025
Stanford at Hawai'i, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Hawai'i beat Stanford 23–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. Stanford had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Stanford.
Before kickoff Hawai'i was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:01 left): K. Matsuzawa made a 37-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to Stanford.
Final
 Stanford Cardinal | 20 |
|---|---|
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Hawai'i about even · −25 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stanford wins 2, Hawai'i wins 8.
- 1 STAN 23 HAW 9
- 2 STAN 13 HAW 10
- 3 STAN 19 HAW 21
- 4 STAN 13 HAW 17
- 5 STAN 23 HAW 30
- 6 STAN 14 HAW 24
- 7 STAN 14 HAW 28
- 8 STAN 2 HAW 20
- 9 STAN 10 HAW 33
- 10 STAN 10 HAW 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stanford wins 25% of them, Hawai'i 75%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stanford by 17+ | 3.1% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 13.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 30.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Kenney, 23 yds made · 95% expected
- E. Kenney, 34 yds missed · 84% expected
- E. Kenney, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 40 yds made · 71% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 37 yds made · 76% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 38 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Stanford 8 for 70 yards, Hawai'i 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:09 | Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 8 yards | +3% STAN +1.2 pts |
| Q1 4:48 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:25 | Face Mask on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +2% STAN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:32 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 2 yards | +1% STAN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | Holding on Stanford, 0 yards | 0% HAW 0.0 pts |
| Q2 9:53 | Face Mask on Stanford, 15 yards | +2% HAW +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:21 | Roughing the Passer on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +3% STAN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:50 | Intentional Grounding on Stanford, 0 yards | 0% HAW 0.0 pts |
| Q2 3:38 | Personal Foul on Stanford, 15 yards | +3% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:31 | Face Mask on Stanford, 15 yards | +4% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Stanford, 15 yards | +4% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q3 13:49 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:01 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +2% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:20 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +2% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:25 | Offside on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HAW +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:21 | Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% STAN +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Hawai'i’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:08 | Hawai'i fumbled and Stanford recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by StanfordSpecial teams | +9% STAN | HAW: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:59 | E. Kenney missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +6% HAW | STAN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:41 | Hawai'i was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% STAN | HAW: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 1:15 | Stanford converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% STAN | STAN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:06 | Stanford converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +7% STAN | STAN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 7:26 | Stanford converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +6% STAN | STAN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 2:01 | K. Matsuzawa made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him | +20% STAN | HAW: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:00 | K. Matsuzawa made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +9% HAW | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stanford 21% · Hawai'i 79%
- Final margin
- Hawai'i by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for Stanford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hawai'i by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Stanford 25% · Hawai'i 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Stanford · 
Hawai'i
More from Week 1 2025
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner