Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Weber State at James Madison, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Weber State 45–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Weber State Wildcats | 10 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 James Madison about even · 0 Weber State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Weber State wins 0, James Madison wins 10.
- 1 WEB 20 JMU 31
- 2 WEB 22 JMU 45
- 3 WEB 3 JMU 31
- 4 WEB 10 JMU 43
- 5 WEB 10 JMU 48
- 6 WEB 7 JMU 48
- 7 WEB 0 JMU 44
- 8 WEB 7 JMU 55
- 9 WEB 10 JMU 63
- 10 WEB 3 JMU 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Weber State wins 0% of them, James Madison 100%. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Weber State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Weber State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Weber State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 98.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Calder, 51 yds made · 51% expected
- M. Suarez, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- M. Suarez, 47 yds blocked · 60% expected
Penalties: Weber State 3 for 21 yards, James Madison 5 for 86 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:16 | Pass Interference on Weber State, 8 yards | 0% JMU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:06 | Personal Foul on Weber State, 8 yards | 0% JMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:21 | Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% WEB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:42 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% WEB +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Holding on James Madison, 25 yards | 0% WEB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Holding on James Madison, 16 yards | 0% WEB +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:33 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% WEB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:24 | False Start on Weber State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | Weber State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% JMU | WEB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:11 | James Madison converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedJames Madison converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +1% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:20 | Weber State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% WEB | WEB: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:18 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +0% WEB | JMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:35 | James Madison converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:39 | Weber State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% WEB | WEB: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 12:12 | Weber State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% JMU | WEB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q2 11:46 | Weber State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% JMU | WEB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Weber State 0% · James Madison 100%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 35
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Weber State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 35.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Weber State 0% · James Madison 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Weber State · 
James Madison
More from Week 1 2025
- Idaho at Washington State WSU 13–10 · replay 33% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Morgan State at South Alabama USA 38–21 · replay 94% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Texas State TXST 52–27 · replay 95% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Southern Miss MSST 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State ARST 42–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State ASU 38–19 · replay 98% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Virginia UVA 48–7 · replay 98% for the winner