Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Northern Arizona at Arizona State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona State beat Northern Arizona 38–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arizona State was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 19 |
|---|---|
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Arizona State about even · −2 Northern Arizona
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Arizona wins 0, Arizona State wins 10.
- 1 NAU 21 ASU 29
- 2 NAU 10 ASU 24
- 3 NAU 24 ASU 43
- 4 NAU 19 ASU 42
- 5 NAU 10 ASU 36
- 6 NAU 20 ASU 51
- 7 NAU 6 ASU 40
- 8 NAU 10 ASU 48
- 9 NAU 6 ASU 49
- 10 NAU 6 ASU 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Arizona wins 2% of them, Arizona State 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Arizona by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Northern Arizona by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Northern Arizona by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Arizona State by 17+ | 84.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Hunsaker, 31 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Gomez, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- S. Hunsaker, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- J. Gomez, 57 yds missed · 43% expected
Penalties: Northern Arizona 5 for 48 yards, Arizona State 12 for 93 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:19 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% NAU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 9:10 | False Start on Northern Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ASU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:17 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:08 | Delay of Game on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 4:57 | Roughing the Passer on Arizona State, 15 yards | 0% NAU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:34 | Personal Foul on Arizona State, 8 yards | 0% NAU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:46 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% NAU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:43 | Delay of Game on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:10 | Pass Interference on Northern Arizona, 15 yards | 0% ASU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:47 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:02 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% NAU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:50 | Ineligible Downfield on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% NAU +4.5 pts |
| Q3 7:21 | Delay of Game on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:05 | Ineligible Downfield on Northern Arizona, 13 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ASU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | Delay of Game on Northern Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ASU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:31 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% NAU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 2:38 | Holding on Northern Arizona, 10 yards | 0% ASU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Arizona State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:26 | Arizona State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 5:37 | Arizona State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedArizona State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% ASU | ASU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:50 | Ineligible Downfield on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% NAU | NAU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 5:49 | Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% NAU | ASU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 0:52 | Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% NAU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 0:43 | Arizona State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +0% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:38 | Holding on Northern Arizona, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ASU | ASU: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:20 | Northern Arizona’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% ASU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Arizona 1% · Arizona State 99%
- Final margin
- Arizona State by 19
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Arizona State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona State by 15.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Arizona 2% · Arizona State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Northern Arizona · 
Arizona State
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Idaho at Washington State WSU 13–10 · replay 33% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- North Dakota at Kansas State KSU 38–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- TCU at North Carolina TCU 48–14 · replay 99% for the winner