Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Troy Trojans: luck and expected wins

Troy is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 67th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Troy wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Sam Houston	W 24–21	55%	+45
Week 2	vs Alabama State	W 34–17	95%	+5
Week 3	@ Missouri	L 17–27	10%	−10
Week 4	@ Utah State	L 10–21	25%	−25

Wk 1 +45 vs SHSU

Wk 2 +5 vs ALST

Wk 3 −10 @ MIZ

Wk 4 −25 @ USU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Troy win chance
Week 6 · Oct 6	vs Southern Miss	Troy by 7.0	67%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Louisiana	Louisiana by 8.2	31%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs UL Monroe	Troy by 19.3	88%
Week 9 · Oct 29	at James Madison	James Madison by 21.9	9%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Louisiana Tech	Troy by 1.1	53%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at South Alabama	South Alabama by 4.3	40%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Georgia Southern	Troy by 3.1	57%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State by 2.4	44%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Troy’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.06	+6.9
Pre-snap flags	+0.03	+7.1
3rd & 4th downs	−0.08	−2.0

Luckiest wins

Wins Troy takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	@ Buffalo	W 21–17	30%	+70
2025 Week 7	@ Texas State	W 48–41	31%	+69
2025 Week 13	vs Georgia State	W 31–19	45%	+55
2026 Week 1	vs Sam Houston	W 24–21	55%	+45
2025 Week 8	@ UL Monroe	W 37–14	58%	+42

Unluckiest losses

Losses Troy would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl	vs Jacksonville State	L 13–17	35%	−35
2026 Week 4	@ Utah State	L 10–21	25%	−25
2025 Week 2	@ Clemson	L 16–27	21%	−21
2025 Week 10	vs Arkansas State	L 10–23	19%	−19
2026 Week 3	@ Missouri	L 17–27	10%	−10

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–5	5.0	+3.0	3–0	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Nicholls	W 38–20	85%	+15
Week 2	@ Clemson	L 16–27	21%	−21
Week 3	vs Memphis	L 7–28	1%	−1
Week 4	@ Buffalo	W 21–17	30%	+70
Week 6	vs South Alabama	W 31–24	86%	+14
Week 7	@ Texas State	W 48–41	31%	+69
Week 8	@ UL Monroe	W 37–14	58%	+42
Week 9	vs Louisiana	W 35–23	62%	+38
Week 10	vs Arkansas State	L 10–23	19%	−19
Week 12	@ Old Dominion	L 0–33	0%	0
Week 13	vs Georgia State	W 31–19	45%	+55
Week 14	@ Southern Miss	W 28–18	63%	+37
Week 15	@ James Madison	L 14–31	2%	−2
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl	vs Jacksonville State	L 13–17	35%	−35