Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Troy at Texas State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Troy beat Texas State 48–41, but the replays lean toward Texas State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Texas State was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:13 left): Troy’s two-point try was good, worth 21 points of win probability to Troy.
Final (OT)
 Troy Trojans | 48 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Troy very lucky · −69 Texas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 3, Texas State wins 7.
- 1 TROY 28 TXST 10
- 2 TROY 17 TXST 7
- 3 TROY 17 TXST 14
- 4 TROY 21 TXST 24
- 5 TROY 24 TXST 28
- 6 TROY 21 TXST 30
- 7 TROY 23 TXST 35
- 8 TROY 20 TXST 35
- 9 TROY 16 TXST 38
- 10 TROY 13 TXST 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 31% of them, Texas State 69%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 5.3% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 24.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Robles, 42 yds made · 70% expected
- P. McAteer, 53 yds made · 48% expected
- S. Taylor Renfroe, 47 yds made · 60% expected
- T. Robles, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- T. Robles, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
Penalties: Troy 5 for 26 yards, Texas State 10 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:15 | Penalty on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:29 | Penalty on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:56 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | +1% TXST +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:25 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TXST +1.7 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:28 | Penalty on Texas State, 9 yards | 0% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +3% TROY +3.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Penalty on Texas State, 0 yards | +1% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:57 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TROY +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:38 | Personal Foul on Troy, 1 yard | 0% TXST +0.1 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 5 yards | +4% TROY +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 9 yards | +2% TROY +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | Roughing the Passer on Texas State, 15 yards | +4% TROY +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:56 | Texas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% TXST | TXST: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 10:15 | Penalty on Texas State, 10 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by Texas StateSpecial teams | +6% TXST | TROY: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 15:00 | Troy converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedHolding on Texas State, 10 yardsJudgment callsPenalty on Texas State, 0 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Texas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% TROY | TROY: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 11:26 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +4% TXST | TROY: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 7:57 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedTexas State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedFalse Start on Texas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% TROY | TXST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | Troy converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedTroy was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedPass Interference on Texas State, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 12:40 | Texas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedTexas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedTexas State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedTexas State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedTexas State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:13 | Troy’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedRoughing the Passer on Texas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +21% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 78% · Texas State 22%
- Final margin
- Troy by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Troy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Troy by 5.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 31% · Texas State 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Troy · 
Texas State
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