Week 7 2025 · October 8, 2025
Missouri State at Middle Tennessee, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri State beat Middle Tennessee 22–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Missouri State wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Missouri State.
Before kickoff Missouri State was a 58% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:03 left): J. Hathaway missed a 50-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to Missouri State. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:17 left): Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 18.
Final
 Missouri State Bears | 22 |
|---|---|
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Missouri State lucky · −60 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri State wins 4, Middle Tennessee wins 6.
- 1 MOST 24 MTSU 0
- 2 MOST 38 MTSU 24
- 3 MOST 24 MTSU 17
- 4 MOST 24 MTSU 21
- 5 MOST 7 MTSU 10
- 6 MOST 7 MTSU 13
- 7 MOST 7 MTSU 16
- 8 MOST 24 MTSU 37
- 9 MOST 6 MTSU 24
- 10 MOST 0 MTSU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri State wins 40% of them, Middle Tennessee 60%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri State by 17+ | 8.1% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 10.8% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 18.7% |
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 19.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hathaway, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- Y. Obeid, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- J. Hathaway, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- Y. Obeid, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- Y. Obeid, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Hathaway, 50 yds missed · 55% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Missouri State 3 for 41 yards, Middle Tennessee 7 for 84 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:38 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +1% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:35 | Ineligible Downfield on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards | +1% MOST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:16 | Personal Foul on Middle Tennessee, 50 yards | +7% MOST +3.1 pts |
| Q2 4:21 | Illegal Formation on Middle Tennessee, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 3:02 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% MOST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Missouri State, 15 yards | +6% MTSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:20 | Face Mask on Missouri State, 11 yards | +6% MTSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:30 | Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 0 yards | 0% MOST 0.0 pts |
| Q4 7:13 | Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +5% MOST +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:04 | Face Mask on Missouri State, 15 yards | +9% MTSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:16 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedPersonal Foul on Middle Tennessee, 50 yardsJudgment calls | +14% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 9:27 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% MOST | MTSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 4:14 | Missouri State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedMissouri State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MTSU | MOST: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:56 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +7% MOST | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:12 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +11% MTSU | MTSU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 2:04 | Face Mask on Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% MTSU | MTSU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:03 | The game turned hereJ. Hathaway missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +17% MOST | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:17 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +20% MTSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri State 32% · Middle Tennessee 68%
- Final margin
- Missouri State by 2
- Luck in points
- 5.6 for Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Middle Tennessee by 3.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri State 40% · Middle Tennessee 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Missouri State · 
Middle Tennessee
More from Week 7 2025
- Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston JXST 29–27 · replay 64% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State KENN 35–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Liberty at UTEP LIB 19–8 · replay 95% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner
- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner